【www.dagaqi.com--投资盈利】
第四章 项目投资2015
你所不知道的连锁经营
你所不知道的连锁经营
不为人知的制度：
（一）许多在连锁经营做到高级位置最终选择了退出，无非两个原因，第一个是良心不安。第二个则是因为连锁经营的‘制度盲点’。
行业在前期考察时所描绘的奖金分配的确诱人，其实在往后的实际操作中已经被改动，我们所谓的‘上总’，保底6万元到10万员之间，如果你了解过真正的分配图，你首先会感觉异样：
行业一直都说我们投入的资金分配基数为100%，其中分为55%和45%：
关于55%，又分别为3%跟52%，3%作为‘老总’的效益分红。而三大奖金直接提成，间接提成以及销售补助则按52%的分发形式给每个级别。
关于45%，大部分的体系号称45%的资金是纳税给国家，又或是连锁经营对国家指定的某一个合作企业的投资。正因为有了这笔投资，往后行业里面的每一位投资者都会享有该类效益资金返还的权利。
事实从上面的分配图来看，45%并没有投资，并没有纳税，而是进入‘老总’们的口袋中。许多生意的存在合情合理却不合法，即便违法，依然会有人甘愿为了赚钱而铤而走险。许多生意合情合理哪怕也合法，可是它并不赚钱，我们姑且不讨论行业的合法性只，如果它不赚钱，想来你也不会有初始那份斗志继续做下去。 备注：无论体系之中产生的任何细微的差异，都无法掩盖一个事实，没有真体系，也没有假体系，所有的体系都是一个性质，都是彻彻底底的吃干分净。
（二）行业的实际奖金分配，只要你了解以后，你会发现这并不是什么利国利民利己的事，而是一个彻彻底底的分钱游戏。
分钱也好，投资也好，问题是究竟怎么分，能分多少？
以3800与21份69800为例，解析问题所在：
3800原始的样子：
加入连锁经营的条件最低投资为3800：
3
个直接下线需要找自己的下线：
每个人则需要2份晋升业务组长，你的分成 (3+3+3+1=10份)
累计31份，经理需要65份，距离34份
成为业务经理前可获得190+1140+7980+5168=16188
65份经理
按照你的下线所发展的131份，你可拿
你的下线与你一样这样上经理，直接下线每人拿131个456.
这时候你可拿：
按照3800原始记录，在上高级业务员之前，
你在业务经理位置可得到：
下线（一） 下线（二） 下线（三） 你的下线是业务经理
119份 200份 200份
三个直接下线上高级所需份额
显而易见，你的下面三名直接下线只要做到高级业务员时，他们可拿￥380元。
行业算法：
通过以上计算不难得出结论，假如按照行业计算公式，你可以拿到￥1929034。 我们假设，一个高级业务在最高的位置平均2年半，效益分红则为6-10万元一个月。取正常平均数8万计算，可获得30 X 8=240万。
如果再加上之前的￥1929034的话，估算是430万，再扣掉所谓的10%税收。于是得出了380万这个数据。
问题在于，行业真的是这么计算的吗？当然不是！
（三）从账面上看，只需要3800发展3个人便可以得到380万，这样的诱惑毋庸置疑。实际上，只要经过计算，这个行业不光不能发财，而且还赚不了钱。 3800实际的样子：
解剖52%：
该百分比以直接提成，间接提成以及销售补助组成。
实习业务员
发展直接下线（直接提成15%上面直接组长（间接提成5%）
上面直接主任（间接提成10%）
上面直接经理（间接提成12%）
上面直接高级业务员（间接提成10%）
按照分配为：15% + 5% + 10% +12% +10% 52%
业务组长
发展直接下线（直接提成20%上面直接主任（直接间接10%）
上面直接经理（直接间接12%）
上面直接高级业务员（间接提成10%）
按照分配为：20% + 10% +12% +10% =52%{投资3800}.
业务主任
发展直接下线（直接提成30%上面直接经理（间接提成12%）
上面直接高级业务员（间接提成10%） 按照分配为：30% + 12% +10% =52%
业务经理
发展直接下线（直接提成42%上面直接高级业务员（间接提成10%）
按照分配为：42% +10%=52%
漏洞解析
所有公式计算过后，一目了然，无论是直接提成还是间接提成，只要一计算便已将52%分配完，之所有相信国家项目，无非在于销售补助令参与者认为这是国家企业返还一种证明。
如果说，从来不曾出现企业合作呢？
保利协鑫能源(3800)：渠道调研-预计商务部对海外多晶硅双反初裁将于近期公告(20130704)
SWS Research Co. Ltd 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818
Semiconductors & Semiconductor
The Chinese View on China
2013年7月4日
买入
维持
Market Data: July,3
Closing Price (HK$) 1.59 Price Target (HK$) 1.2 HSCEI 8,900 HSCCI
3,829 52-week High/Low (HK$) 2.33/1.11
Market Cap (USD Mn) 3,173 Market Cap (HK$ Mn) 24,604 Shares Outstanding (Mn) 15,474 Exchange Rate (RMB-HK$)
1.25
Price Performance Chart:
Source: Bloomberg
Analyst
Rong Ye A0230512110001 AYZ033
[email protected]{投资3800}.
Research Associate{投资3800}.
Vincent Yu A0230112080003 [email protected]
Contact
Vincent Yu
(8621)23297818×7301 The company does not hold any equities or
derivatives of the listed company
mentioned in this report (“target”), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and
regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of issued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the target. The
Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact [email protected] for relevant disclosure materials or log into under disclosure column for further information. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page.
渠道调研：预计商务部对海外多晶硅双反初裁将于近期公告
保利协鑫能源控股 ( 3800 HK )
Financial summary and valuation
2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E
Revenue (HKD million) YOY (%)
Net income (HKD million) 25,505.00 31,795.76
YOY (%) EPS (HKD)
4,569.40 42.46 22,348.00 24,676.06 29,395.76
2,569.21 Diluted EPS (HKD) 13.57 -3,385.26 (174.09) (12.38) (496.21) (85.34) 10.42 2,227.09 (548.82) 19.13 15.36 8.16 ROE (%)
Debt/asset (%) Dividend Yield (%) 20.64 0.28 P/E (x) 67.20 0.28 P/B (x)
3.44 (19.05) (0.23) 73.80 (0.23) (0.03) (0.03) 0.14 0.14 - 74.44 (2.87) - 11.42 71.87 - 13.63 0.16 EV/EBITDA (x)
5.79 69.15
0.16 1.20 5.44 17.76 (7.05) 1.53 (52.55) 10.25 1.57 11.71 1.39 5.78
10.15 - Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised. P/E is calculated as closing price divided by each year’s EPS.
10.54
1.22 投资要点：
我们估计中国商务部对海外多晶硅双反初裁定很快宣布。我们渠道调研显示商务部这次将会对欧盟恶意对中国产光伏组件采取真实行动，原因可能在于中国光伏组件界第
一轮谈判并不顺利。我们相信这对于保利协鑫的股价是一个非常正面的催化剂，原因在于硅料价格将立刻上涨。
我们近期的实地调研显示保利协鑫的FBR法取得突破。我们近期调研了江苏中能，发现FBR的研发进展顺利。公司目前升级25,000吨多晶硅至FBR法，全成本目标每千克10美金以下。同时，自备电厂对于原来的45,000吨多晶硅进行支持，成本有望降到每千克15美金以下。基于公司预估，到2014年年中，全部成本将会低至每千克13美金。
中投公司减持大约8%保利协鑫的股票，但是仍旧留在董事局。我们调研发现中投的减持并非出于“未公开”风险，而是基于自身资产组合重新配置的业务考虑。我们认为中投在未来2个月内不会继续减持股票，而该时间段是国内利好光伏政策爆发的密集期。
我们预计13/14年EPS为港币-0.13/0.14并维持评级买入并维持目标价值港币2.78以显示比较确定的催化剂，新的目标价意味着13/14E 市净率为2.74/2.41x 和13/14年市盈率n.a./20.3x。
October 12, 2010
July 4,2013
Building Materials | Company Research Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
| Company Research
Investment Highlights:
We estimate DoC of China is to announce AD/CVD preliminary judgment against overseas poly-si manufacturers soon. Our channel check shows DoC is going to take real action against EU’s hostile reaction because the first round of the discussion was not promising between EU and China module producers. We believe this is a direct catalyst for GCL-Poly as the poly-si spot is to rally instantaneously upon the judgment.
Our recent site visit witnessed the breakthrough of the new FBR method. We have recently visited Jiangsu Zhongneng and find the process of R&D on FBR is going well. The company will upgrade its 25,000MT poly-si capacity for FBR method aiming at below US$10 per kilogram cost. In the mean time, the self equipment power plants will fully support its remaining 45,000MT poly-si capacity for below US$15 per kilogram cost. By middle of 2014, total blended cost will be as low as US$ 13 per kilo based on company’s guidance.
CIC has sold around 8% of its holding but still remains in the board. Our channel check also shows CIC’s leaving is not due to some “unknown” risks but from its own portfolio restructuring considerations. We think CIC is not going to sell the remaining shares within the next 2 months when plenty policies favoring solar industry were coming.
We forecast 13/14E EPS at HK$ -0.03/0.14 and maintain Buy rating and TP at HK$ 2.78 for the strong catalyst ahead. The TP implies 13/14E 2.74/2.41x PBR or 13/14E PER n.a./20.3x.
October 12, 2010
July 4,2013
Building Materials | Company Research Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
| Company Research
Investment Case
Valuation and Target Price
We forecast 13/14E EPS at HK$ -0.03/0.14 but upgrade to Buy rating and raise TP to HK$ 2.78 for more clear visibility. The new TP implies 13/14E 2.74/2.41x PBR or 13/14E PER n.a./20.3x.
Key Assumptions
1. NDR well received by investors. The latest NDR is well received by
domestic investors in Beijing. The market still regards GCL-Poly (3800.HK) as the sole solar proxy and cost leader in HK market and domestic We believe GCL-Poly will enjoy another round of heavy rally soon as long as poly-si spot price continues to be strong as we expect. 2. The management confirms that wafer process sector has become
profitable in Q2 with GPM jumping from zero to low positive single digit and utilization rate beats over 80%. We think the sensitivity for wafer sector is even higher than that of poly-si sector. (US$ 1 rally for poly-si spot breeds US$50m net profit and US$ 0.01 rally for wafer spot breeds 80m net profit, assuming 50,000MT poly-si and 8GW wafer shipment volume).
Poly-si Spot price is soon to surge.{投资3800}.
How we differ from consensus
4. AD/CVD against overseas poly-si players is a done deal when EU has
set import tariff of 11.8% for two months and then revert to 47.6% if no “material” progress has been made with China before August 6. One important signal is that China has hit back at European wine exports in response to the European Union's decision to impose duties on imports of Chinese solar panels. We are expecting China to announce poly-si AD/CVD preliminary judgment in early June which is soon.
3. Only positive catalysts are ahead for GCL-Poly which include 1)
Chinese government is going to announce new solar FiT subsidy for ground mounted and RDEG (Renewable distributed energy generation) which will provide practical IRR for end users and 2) AD/CVD against overseas solar poly-si manufacturers will be announced soon which will help GCL-Poly to strengthen the domestic spot price of poly-si and 3) more strict entry barrier for poly-si capacity ramping up which means no further worries on supply side.
Catalysts
1) Poly-si Spot to rally
2) China to announce AD/CVD against overseas poly-si manufactures
Risks to central scenario
1) It may take longer time for the further rally of spot price of poly-si.
2) China may delay announcement of the AD/CVD decision due to political
reasons.
October 12, 2010
July 4,2013
Building Materials | Company Research Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
| Company Research
Financial Statements
Fig 1: Consolidated Income Statement
Revenue
25,505
17,039
Cost of Sales Gross Profit Other Income SG&A Expense R&D Expense EBITDA EBIT
22,348
20,599
25,657{投资3800}.
22,482
29,396
23,660
31,796
25,474
8,466 292 1,617 8,964 7,084 1,245 4,886 1,269 4,569 295 57
1,749 (702) 1,899 3,061 (948) 2,313 5,839 124 130 96
3,176
0 1,283 6,042 (3,261) 1,816 1,738 16 61 3 77
5,735
0 1,470 9,082 4,177 1,749 78 510 111 88
6,322
0 1,590 4,636 4,636 1,775 2,428 601 128 95
Finance Costs
Profit before tax Income tax expense Minority interests Profit for the year Source: SWS Research
(3,385) 2,227 2,569
Fig 2: Consolidated Balance Sheet
Current Assets Inventories PP&E
Bank balances and cash Other current assets
Trade and other receivables 7,040 8,681 8,576 10,067 10,889
3,627 2,248 4,927 5,186 5,583 4,466 6,744 5,796 6,086 6,390 322 389 451 474 497 41,181 42,233 41,557 40,187 38,532 67,488 67,818 68,280 69,892 72,101 21,452 30,439 29,385 27,139 24,998 7,628 9,128 9,239 9,723 10,469 2,242 1,607 2,146 2,416 2,529 23,902 19,609 21,063 22,693 24,475 45,354 50,048 50,448 49,833 49,473 1,567 1,560 1,564 1,675 1,803 1,547 1,548 1,548 1,548 1,548 19,020 14,662 14,721 16,836 19,277 20,567 16,210 16,268 18,384 20,825 67,488 67,818 68,280 69,892 72,101 22,134 17,770 17,832 20,059 22,628 11,582 19,705 18,000 15,000 12,000 3,970 3,028 2,952 2,947 2,931
Long-term investment Intangible and other assets Total Assets Current Liabilities Borrowings
Trade and other payables Other current liabilities Long-term liabilities Total Liabilities Minority Interests Share Capital Reserves Shareholder Equity Equity attributable
6,883 4,496 4,021 4,945 7,278
22,015 22,169 23,320 26,284 30,140
Total Liabilities and equity Source: SWS Research
October 12, 2010
July 4,2013
Fig 3: Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
Building Materials | Company Research Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
| Company Research
Finance cost Others
Profit before taxation Plus：Depr. and amortization Losses from investments Change in working capital CAPEX
5,839 1,896 (4,733) (1,548) (3,395) 1,166 96
(3,261) 2,774 2,309 (842) 1,326 2,326 (1,483) (5,311) 3,828
0 20
78
4,320 1,738 (197) (500)
2,428 4,732 1,749 (415) (500) (310) (93) 0
2,861 5,036 1,775 (433) (455) (500)
CF from operating activities Other CF from investing activities CF from investing activities Equity financing Net change in liabilities
2,716
(1,875)
4,065 3,550
(1,226)
7,269 3,250
8,784 3,250
(18,245)
14,850
(4,050) (3,750) (3,750) (1,118) (1,775) (2,852) (93)
Dividend and interest paid Net cash flow
Other CF from financing activities CF from financing activities Source: SWS Research
(1,926) (93)
14,475 15,534
5
(2,222) (2,368) (93)
3,111 617
(1,738) (640) (625) (93)
1,098
(1,749) (2,744)
775 2,182
Ratios per share (yuan) Earnings per share Diluted EPS
Fig 4: Key Financial Ratios
0.28 0.28 0.18 0.06 1.33 13.9 20.6 33.2 35.1 27.8 38.1 67.2 1.15 0.38 21.7 3.4 5.8 1.2 1.9 5.5 4.1
Operating CF per share Dividend per share ROIC ROE
Net assets per share Key Operating Ratios (%)
(0.23) (0.23)
0.15 0.00 1.05
0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 1.05 4.5 0.3 7.1
0.14 0.14 0.47 0.00 1.19 11.1 19.5 30.9 14.2 14.6 71.3 1.47 0.42 21.0 11.8 1.4 1.8 5.7 0.0 9.3
0.16 0.16 0.57 0.00 1.35 13.6 19.9 14.6 14.6 15.4 68.6 1.41 0.44 21.0 10.2 10.5 1.2 1.5 0.0 8.2 9.2
Gross profit margin EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin
Growth rate of Revenue(YoY) Growth rate of Profit(YoY) Debt-to-asset ratio Turnover rate of net assets Effective tax rate (%) Dividend yield (%) P/E P/B
(19.0) (4.2)
(2.4)
(174.1)
(12.4)
13.7
7.8 12.4 23.5 n.a. n.a.
Turnover rate of total assets Valuation Ratios (X)
73.8 1.26 0.33 21.0 n.a. 17.8 1.5 2.4 0.0
73.9 1.44 0.38 21.0 427.5 1.5 2.1 9.0 0.0
3528.8
EV/Sale
EV/EBITDA
Source: SWS Research
某企业在工商登记部门登记的注册资本金为3000万元,实际收到投资人投入
一、整体解读
试卷紧扣教材和考试说明，从考生熟悉的基础知识入手，多角度、多层次地考查了学生的数学理性思维能力及对数学本质的理解能力，立足基础，先易后难，难易适中，强调应用，不偏不怪，达到了“考基础、考能力、考素质”的目标。试卷所涉及的知识内容都在考试大纲的范围内，几乎覆盖了高中所学知识的全部重要内容，体现了“重点知识重点考查”的原则。
1．回归教材，注重基础
试卷遵循了考查基础知识为主体的原则，尤其是考试说明中的大部分知识点均有涉及，其中应用题与抗战胜利70周年为背景，把爱国主义教育渗透到试题当中，使学生感受到了数学的育才价值，所有这些题目的设计都回归教材和中学教学实际，操作性强。
2．适当设置题目难度与区分度
选择题第12题和填空题第16题以及解答题的第21题，都是综合性问题，难度较大，学生不仅要有较强的分析问题和解决问题的能力，以及扎实深厚的数学基本功，而且还要掌握必须的数学思想与方法，否则在有限的时间内，很难完成。
3．布局合理，考查全面，着重数学方法和数学思想的考察
在选择题，填空题，解答题和三选一问题中，试卷均对高中数学中的重点内容进行了反复考查。包括函数，三角函数，数列、立体几何、概率统计、解析几何、导数等几大版块问题。这些问题都是以知识为载体，立意于能力，让数学思想方法和数学思维方式贯穿于整个试题的解答过程之中。
第六章企业项目投资
某企业在工商登记部门登记的注册资本金为3000万,实际收到投资人投入的
一、整体解读
试卷紧扣教材和考试说明，从考生熟悉的基础知识入手，多角度、多层次地考查了学生的数学理性思维能力及对数学本质的理解能力，立足基础，先易后难，难易适中，强调应用，不偏不怪，达到了“考基础、考能力、考素质”的目标。试卷所涉及的知识内容都在考试大纲的范围内，几乎覆盖了高中所学知识的全部重要内容，体现了“重点知识重点考查”的原则。
1．回归教材，注重基础
试卷遵循了考查基础知识为主体的原则，尤其是考试说明中的大部分知识点均有涉及，其中应用题与抗战胜利70周年为背景，把爱国主义教育渗透到试题当中，使学生感受到了数学的育才价值，所有这些题目的设计都回归教材和中学教学实际，操作性强。
2．适当设置题目难度与区分度
选择题第12题和填空题第16题以及解答题的第21题，都是综合性问题，难度较大，学生不仅要有较强的分析问题和解决问题的能力，以及扎实深厚的数学基本功，而且还要掌握必须的数学思想与方法，否则在有限的时间内，很难完成。
3．布局合理，考查全面，着重数学方法和数学思想的考察
在选择题，填空题，解答题和三选一问题中，试卷均对高中数学中的重点内容进行了反复考查。包括函数，三角函数，数列、立体几何、概率统计、解析几何、导数等几大版块问题。这些问题都是以知识为载体，立意于能力，让数学思想方法和数学思维方式贯穿于整个试题的解答过程之中。
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