创业指导

【视角姬】洋视角:熊市如何保持好心态

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      身处熊市,即便是股市“老手”也很难获益。股市不振,亿万富翁也难逃损失惨重的厄运。和亿万富翁数以亿计的损失相比,我们的损失岂不是“小巫见大巫”?

 

      现如今,身处熊市的人会极其担忧其投资受损。尽管很难百分百预测股市的未来走势,但长期看来大盘股市很可能会出现反弹。因此,担忧未来的股市投资会否遭受损失这个问题,真的没有必要。

 

      但是,如果入市的方式为短期投资,那么是时候考虑将这部分投资逐渐转移到一些安全系数较高的投资领域了。之所以这样做,其原因并非源于股市的起伏跌宕,而是基于这样的一个事实——没有谁能预测股市的短期行情。举例来说,从现在起一年之内,也没有人能预测股市的起落。虽然很多人会揣测并假装洞悉股市的行情,但没人能对股市的起落“打包票”,因为能影响股市的变量实在太多。

 

      将短期内可能会用到的资金投入股市,风险还是较高的。如果你正打算这么做,建议你认真考虑一下冒这么大的风险是否值得。此外,还需谨记一点,经济危机发生的原因大抵就是缺少对风险管理的认识。

 

 

      身处熊市,即便是股市“老手”也很难获益。股市不振,亿万富翁也难逃损失惨重的厄运。和亿万富翁数以亿计的损失相比,我们的损失岂不是“小巫见大巫”?

 

      现如今,身处熊市的人会极其担忧其投资受损。尽管很难百分百预测股市的未来走势,但长期看来大盘股市很可能会出现反弹。因此,担忧未来的股市投资会否遭受损失这个问题,真的没有必要。

 

      但是,如果入市的方式为短期投资,那么是时候考虑将这部分投资逐渐转移到一些安全系数较高的投资领域了。之所以这样做,其原因并非源于股市的起伏跌宕,而是基于这样的一个事实——没有谁能预测股市的短期行情。举例来说,从现在起一年之内,也没有人能预测股市的起落。虽然很多人会揣测并假装洞悉股市的行情,但没人能对股市的起落“打包票”,因为能影响股市的变量实在太多。

 

      将短期内可能会用到的资金投入股市,风险还是较高的。如果你正打算这么做,建议你认真考虑一下冒这么大的风险是否值得。此外,还需谨记一点,经济危机发生的原因大抵就是缺少对风险管理的认识。

 

 

      看一下上面这幅图片。我相信,在峡谷间自由飞翔是一件很有趣的事情。但是,并不是所有人都认为这份快乐值得拿生命去冒险。

 

原文:

 

How to Not Lose Sleep in a Bear Market

 

In this bear market, not even the so called “smart money” are making money. I was watching Fast Money last night where they were talking about a few billionaire investors who literally lost tons of money on bad investments. A few included:

 

Kirk Kerkorian lost $500 million with his investment in Ford

 

Bill Ackman invested 2.4 billion in 9 stocks, many of which are bleeding money (Target alone lost 50%).

 

Carl Icahn lost $750 million with his Yahoo bet (he probably lost just as much with his Motorola investment too)

 

Aubrey McClendon bought tons of shares of Chesapeake Energy where he’s the CEO and he was forced to sell them all at its lows because of a margin call. Estimation of his lost is $1.5 billion.

 

And all this time, we thought we lost a lot of money.

 

While I have no doubt they are upset about the losses they incurred (a $1 billion dollar lost isn’t something you just forget about), I’m sure they aren’t losing much sleep over this because of primarily one reason – they don’t need the money anytime soon.

 

Some of us are extremely worried right now because we are afraid the money we have isn’t going to be enough. While it’s impossible to predict the future with 100% accuracy, it is safe to say that the stock market as a whole will come back up over the long run. Therefore, there’s really no need to worry about it if the money is in there for the future.

 

If there’s short term money in the market however, now is the time to think about slowly transferring it to safer investments. The reason has nothing to do with whether the market will go up or down but rather the fact that no one can predict what stocks will do in the short term. In a year from now, no one has any idea whether stocks will be higher or lower. There are many people that will take a guess at it and pretend like they know but no one can guarantee because there are too many variables that will affect the outcome.

 

Putting money that may be needed in the short term towards the stock market is too risky. If this is you, seriously think about whether the risk is appropriate and keep in mind that the whole economic crisis happened due to the lack of appreciation for risk management.

 

Look at the picture above. I’m sure it’s fun to fly down the canyon but not everyone believes it’s necessary to risk dying to do so.

 

栏目介绍:“洋视角”是理财频道新开设的一个栏目,栏目会定期从国外投资理财网站择优挑选一些优秀的投资理财方面的观点文章进行提炼和编译。帮助国内投资者了解到国外投资者最新的动向和观点,以期对国内投资者的投资理财有借鉴意义。

 

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