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【摘要】随着国际经济关系的发展变化，外汇储备适度规模的标准也在随之不断发生变化。本文总结了国内外对外汇储备最优规模的研究理论，介绍了国内外对该问题具有代表性的理论。
【关键词】最优外汇储备 文献综述
一、国外最优外汇储备研究综述
Triffin（1960）最早提出比例分析法，他选取了一个简单直观的指标——一国持有的储备额与同期该国进口额的比率。他通过对12个主要贸易国家从1950年到1957年间外汇储备变化情况进行实证检验后得到结论，认为一国外汇储备与年进口额的比例保持在25%一40%之间是比较合适的。
Heller（1966）提出了成本一一效益模型。他把一国对外汇储备的需求，放在成本一一效益的框架内来分析，提出外汇储备的最优水平，取决于三个因素：（1）因应对对外不平衡而进行调节的成本；（2）持有外汇储备的成本；（3）对外不平衡发生的概率。即，当一国出现对外收支失衡的时候，可以采取不同的方法来进行调节，而动用本国的外汇储备进行调节就是其中之一。动用本国储备来进行调节的优势之一就在于可以避免高昂的对实体经济进行调节所耗费的成本，Heller把这种成本的节约看做是一国持有外汇储备的福利。而持有储备的代价，他是用资本投资的社会收益与外汇储备资产进行金融投资之间的收益差来表示的。Helfer的成本一收益分析法，把讨论的焦点从研究一国储备的最低安全水平引到了一国持有多大的外汇储备规模才是最优的。另外，他把研究者的关注对象从外汇储备的交易动机，转移到了预防性审慎性动机，使用概率来估计对外收支发生失衡的可能性，也真实地反映了对外失衡的实际情况。
Hamada和Ueda（1977）是最早讨论对外失衡及其调节的随机性质问题的。他们延续了Heller模型的基本思想，并引入了Miller和 Orr（1966）模型的存货分析技术。但是他们讨论最优储备规模时，有一点假设不同于Heller模型，他们认为当一国政府调节对外失衡时，并不是直接面临动用储备或者是调节实体经济的二选一的选择，而是会在本国外汇储备耗尽之后才会着手调节实体经济。基于这一理论假设的不同，两人最终得出的最优储备的数值，要大于Heller模型。
在Hamada和Ueda（1977）之后，Frenkel和Jovanovic（1981）也提出了一个新的模型，一般称为最优外汇储备的缓冲存货模型或存货控制模型（FJ模型）。这一模型的基本思想是，最优外汇储备规模最终取决于平衡点的确定，即持有外汇储备的机会成本和调节对外失衡的成本之间的均衡。他们把外汇储备看成是一种缓冲物，它可以用来缓冲一国对外交易过程中的出现的波动。这一理论模型使用了两人早期一篇文章中提出的关于个人对现金需求的连续时间存货控制框架，首先构建了一个标准的布朗运动模型来估计国际收支波动的幅度，然后根据存货理论以国际收支波动和储备收益率作为解释变量，在假定平均对外支付为零的前提下估计了模型，以此来分析关于外汇储备的需求。虽然检验结果与理论预测是基本一致的，但是因为在分析的过程中估计系数对模型方程和样本时间选取有些敏感，因此最终的结论，仅仅是建议性的。
Ben-Basset和Gottlieb（1992）提出了一种新的最优化理论模型。这一模型的主要观点是：一国持有外汇储备的主要目的但本国出现对外支付违约时，可以通过动用储备来缓解违约事件对国内经济带来的冲击。即，一国对外汇储备的需求，主要取决于这种预防危机的审慎性动机。在这一理论框架内，一国持有外汇储备的最优规模，取决于当一国外汇储备耗尽时，导致的经济危机会带来什么样的后果，以及持有储备的机会成本。
最近，基于效用最大化模型成为分析一国外汇储备最优规模的前沿理论。其中比较有代表性的是Jeanne和Ranciere（2008）。他们提出了一个基于效用最大化的跨时均衡最优化模型。
二、国内最优外汇储备研究综述
国内关于外汇储备最优规模的研究起步较晚，自2001年中国外汇储备规模呈快速增长态势之后，国内学者才开始注意到这一问题并开始进行理论和实证的研究。另一方面，国内学者对最优外汇储备规模的探讨，比较常见的是将国外学者的理论模型加以拓展，然后搜集中国历年的相关数据，套入模型，从而得出中国外汇储备规模是否合理的结论。
概括而言，中国学者对外汇储备最优规模的研究中比较有代表性的有：
马之騆 （l991）在文章中详细介绍对储备/进口比例法，而分析的重点集中在该方法的不足。另外，他还运用货币主义学派的外汇储备/国内货币供应量、外汇储备/对外流动性负债等比例分析方法对中国外汇储备的规模是否合理进行了分析。分析得到的结论是，在分析作为发展中国家储备规模问题时， Agarwal模型更适合用于确定中国的外汇储备规模（1996）。
许承明 （2001）在 Frenkel（1978）的外汇储备需求模型基础上，结合我国的具体国情，首先通过回归分析确定了影响我国外汇储备规模的主要因素，并在此基础上构建了我国外汇储备的需求方程并求解，根据求解得到的数值，他认为，自90年代以来，虽然我国的外汇储备的绝对规模并不是很大，但已经存在相对过剩现象了。
余永达和高丰 （2003）对我国外汇储备规模的探讨是基于Agarwal模型的。一方面，他们分析了影响我国外汇储备规模的若干因素：另一方面，通过模型推导比较了我国外汇储备实际规模与“最优规模”之间的关系。他们的结论是：我国目前保持较高的外汇储备水平是符合我国实际情况的，而且也是提高国家经济安全的保障措施之一。
任若恩 （2004）在分析我国外汇储备规模时使用了经济计量学中的协整方法。他分析的结论是我国外汇储备的规模始终是处在适度范围内的，我国实际的储备规模总是能够围绕适度规模在可以被接受的范围内上下波动。在持中国外汇储备规模适度论的中国学者中，他的观点是比较具有代表性的。
李巍，张志超（2009）构建了一个包含外汇储备、金融不稳定、资本流动以及实体经济变量的系统分析框架，探讨影响新兴市场经济体外汇储备的相关因素，继而模拟出中国合意的外汇储备规模。研究结果表明，若国内金融稳定受到冲击或者跨境资本流动日益频繁，外汇储备在广义货币量中的占比就会增加；金融不稳定和实体经济状况对外汇储备占比的边际影响都呈现递减的态势，说明外汇储备的作用是有限度的。另外，模拟结果显示，在确保国内金融稳定的前提下，目前中国的外汇储备总量并不过度，正处于合意的区间范围之内。
从上面的介绍可以看出，国内学者对我国外汇储备规模的研究多集中在运用国外相关理论模型来评估我国外汇储备的适度规模问题，而得到的结论不外乎这样三种：储备过多论、储备不足论和储备规模适中论。客观来说，这样很难得出让人信服的结论。对于这一点，黄泽民（2003）认为不能简单地套用西方外汇储备理论来解释我国的外汇储备问题。外汇储备规模问题的研究，应该从我国外汇储备的性质、特点、成因出发，综合考虑我国经济发展所处的现实阶段以及我国在世界政治经济格局中所处的地位，构建适合我国的理论模型，才能得出理性的结论。
参考文献：
1、刘东雨.中国外汇储备的最优规模：理论与实证[D]山东大学，2011.
2、李巍，张志超.一个基于金融稳定的外汇储备分析框架一一兼论中国外汇储备的适度规模[J].经济研究，2009（8）.
【摘要】 近年来，中国外汇储备持续、高速增长，目前其存量将近三万三千亿美元。但我国外汇储备的收益率低，机会成本大，币种结构相对单一，汇率风险和政治风险都比较大。而且，由持续增长累积的高额外汇储备影响了中国人民银行货币政策的自主性，给人民币带来巨大的升值压力，引发并加剧了通货膨胀。中国高额的外汇储备已对经济产生了一定的消极作用。因此，采取改革当前的结售汇制度、加快人民币国际化步伐、调整储备币种结构、增加黄金持有量和建立战略物资储备等管理措施，保持适度的外汇储备规模，可以提高外汇储备的收益，降低外汇储备的风险，进而有利于储备资产的安全，促进我国经济持续健康发展。
【关键词】 外汇储备 储备币种 美元资产 汇率风险
外汇储备，又称为外汇存底，指一国政府所持有的国际储备资产中的外汇部分，即一国政府保有的以外币表示的债权，是一个国家货币当局持有并可以随时兑换外国货币的资产。狭义而言，外汇储备是一个国家经济实力的重要组成部分，是一国用于平衡国际收支、稳定汇率、偿还对外债务的外汇积累。广义而言，外汇储备是指以外汇计价的资产，包括现钞、国外银行存款、国外有价证券等。外汇储备是一个国家国际清偿力的重要组成部分，同时对于平衡国际收支、稳定汇率、提高融资能力和抵抗金融风险有重要的作用。
一、中国外汇储备的现状
1、中国外汇储备的来源
中国外汇储备主要由四部分组成：一是巨额贸易顺差，这是我国外汇储备的主要来源；二是外国直接投资净流入，即外国对中国的直接投资减去中国对外国的直接投资所导致的净外汇流入；三是外国贷款，包括外国政府、国际金融机构和外国商业银行的贷款；四是对人民币升值预期导致的“热钱”流入。
2、中国外汇储备不断增加，总额巨大
中国外汇储备从1994年汇改时的516.2亿美元，到1996年的首次突破1000亿美元，除了亚洲金融危机的两到三年间，均保持了较快增速。截至2006年2月底，储备总额为8537亿美元，首次超过日本，位居世界第一。随后，中国的外汇储备持续上升，2009年6月，全球第一个超过2万亿美元。至2012年9月底，中国的外汇储备余额已达到3.29万亿美元。
3、币种构成
最近，据中国外汇管理部门人士透露，中国外汇储备中币种结构比重为：美元65%，欧元26%，英镑5%，日元3%。币种结构中，美元占比较大，结构相对单一，与全球外汇储备币种结构情况基本一致。
二、中国高额外汇储备带来的问题
一般而言，为了保证国际清偿力和维持汇率的稳定，拥有适度的外汇储备是必要的。但如果外汇储备持续不断地增长，就会给一国经济体带来负面影响。中国外汇储备存量超过三万亿美元，已经给我国经济带来了一些负面影响。
1、外汇储备的收益率低，机会成本大
我国外汇储备以购买外国国债和外国银行存款为主，其投资回报率很低，过去几年间一直徘徊在1％～6％的范围内。如果用于对外投资的话，那么收益率远远高于国债和银行储蓄，以投资利润率比外汇储备收益率高2％的保守估计来看，若拥有6000亿美元的外汇储备，年损失达到100多亿美元，按三万亿美元计算，我国外汇储备年损失将高达500亿美元，机会成本巨大。同时，外汇储备过多会使我国失去国际货币基金组织的优惠贷款，而且在必要时还必须对有国际收支困难的基金会员国提供帮助，此外，我国还要为每年引进的大约500亿美元的外商投资提供大量的优惠政策，这些同样潜藏着巨大的机会成本。
2、高涨的外汇储备影响货币政策的自主性
外汇占款是中央银行持有外汇储备所对应的货币投放，是基础货币的组成部分。央行为了维持汇率稳定，被动地吸纳外汇资金，增加基础货币发行，并通过货币乘数作用，引起货币供应量的成倍扩大。央行被动地适应外汇占款的波动，货币供给的内生性增强，缩小了央行货币政策的空间，影响了货币政策的自主性，削弱了央行宏观调控的效果，间接影响到宏观经济的稳定。
3、外汇储备结构相对单一，面临巨大的汇率和政治风险
目前，在中国外汇储备中美元资产所占的比例较大，使得中国经济发展成果承受着巨大的美元汇率风险。每当美元汇率下降或美国国内出现通货膨胀而导致美元贬值时，中国外汇储备都会随之贬值，从而造成外汇储备的损失。另外，我国持有大量以美元表示的外汇资产，势必会带来一定的政治风险。假使中美交恶，中国持有的美元资产很可能会面临被冻结的风险，使中国的外汇储备遭受重大损失。
4、巨额外汇储备给人民币带来巨大的升值压力，加剧通货膨胀
首先，持续扩大的国际收支顺差使得我国外汇储备规模不断增加，导致人民币升值压力不断增大；其次，美、日、欧等主要贸易伙伴以我国外汇储备迅速增长作为主要依据，对人民币升值施压，进一步加大了人民币升值的压力；最后，外汇储备的持续增加使得国际游资对人民币汇率有上升的预期，热钱通过各种渠道涌入中国，反过来又加大了人民币升值的压力。
中央银行为维持人民币汇率的相对稳定，必然在外汇市场抛出本币购买外汇，导致外汇储备和货币供给量增加，造成流动性过剩。在货币需求不变的条件下，过多的货币供给必然形成通货膨胀压力。这样，国内物价上涨和人民币升值会产生内外价格同时上行的压力，使我国出口商品价格的国际竞争力下降，对贸易进出口、就业和经济增长带来很大的负面影响。
三、对策
为提高外汇储备的收益，降低外汇储备的风险，减轻高额外汇储备对经济发展的不利影响，必须要对外汇储备管理进行改革。
1、改革结售汇制度，稳步推进人民币国际化进程
1994年起实行的强制结售汇制度，有利于国家集中外汇储备。由于外汇储备主要集中在政府手里，风险也主要由政府承担。2008年8月，我国取消了经常项目下的强制结售汇制度。但是，受人民币升值预期的影响，企业出口换汇后，迅速将其兑换为人民币，外汇储备仍然表现为官方储备。“不要把所有的鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里”，应继续放宽居民结售汇，允许和鼓励商业银行、企业和居民更多的持有外汇并进入外汇市场，建立多元化外汇储备体系，多元分担外汇储备的风险，实现藏汇于民。多元化外汇储备体系建立以后，投资主体分散，不但有利于分散风险，提高资金使用效率，还可缓解人民币升值压力，降低通货膨胀压力，最重要的是可以让百姓更多地分享到改革开放带来的成果。人民币国际化意味着在我国对外贸易中逐步使用人民币代替美元作为结算货币，逐步使人民币成为国际货币体系中的储备货币。人民币实现国际化不仅可以获得铸币税，降低交易成本和汇率风险，更重要的是有利于增强我国在国际金融市场上的融资能力，降低持有外汇储备的规模。
2、调整外汇储备币种结构
长期以来，我国外汇储备币种以美元为主，欧元、日元等币种持有量偏少。美元资产占比较大，致使美国经济、政策的变化直接影响我国外汇储备资产的流动性、安全性和盈利性。斯蒂格利茨曾说，对美国或欧洲哪个才是更好投资场所的看法可能每天都会发生变化。所以，我们必须坚持储备币种多元化原则，综合考虑进口支付需求、外汇市场干预需求、偿还债务需求，密切注意各种货币汇率的走势，及时调整各种货币的比例，逐步减少美元资产比重，增加欧元、日元及其他外币资产的比重，以分散汇率风险，稳定外汇储备价值。但调整币种结构是一个长期的过程，欲速则不达。如果在短期内骤减美元资产，必然加速美元的贬值，我国外汇储备将遭受重大损失。因此，减少美元的持有应采取循序渐进的方式。
3、增加黄金持有量
我国外汇储备存量将近3.30万亿美元，其中65%是美元资产。当前的储备币种结构使我国外汇储备的安全在很大程度上受制于美国，如果美元贬值，必然会造成我国外汇储备缩水。适时将我国的部分外汇储备转换成黄金储备，若美元贬值，黄金则升值，这样既可以对冲美元资产贬值的损失，缓解外汇储备风险，又可以控制外汇储备规模，减轻人民币升值压力，降低外汇占款数量，减低通货膨胀压力和提高央行货币政策的独立性。
近年来，我国意识到了黄金储备的重要性，通过杂金提纯和国内市场交易方式，黄金储备量从600吨增加到1054吨，成为世界第五大黄金储备国。但黄金储备在整个储备资产中的占比仍不到2％，远低于发达国家40％～70％的水平，这意味着我国黄金储备的增加仍有很大的空间。
另外，虽然在牙买加体系下黄金非货币化，但黄金仍然可以作为非常时期的最后支付手段，西方国家历来高度重视黄金储备。我国黄金储备的增加会增强世界对人民币的信心，有利于人民币的国际化。
4、建立战略物资储备
战略性资源，包括原油、铁矿石，橡胶、原木等资源类物资储备，是经济增长和社会发展的重要物质基础，对国计民生和国防具有重要意义。当前，我国有能力利用一部分外汇储备建立起以战略原油储备为主的战略物资储备体系。这不仅有利于缓解我国国内资源短缺，规避高额外汇储备带来的风险，同时对于我国经济安全和国家安全也有重大意义。而且凭借我国充足的外汇储备，更多地参与全球大宗商品的交易，可以提高国家的影响力，争取到更多的定价权。
此外，实施进出口平衡的对外贸易战略，改变进出口贸易结构，鼓励资本输出，支持企业“走出去”，积极开拓国外市场，也可规避外汇储备风险，提高外汇储备管理效率，最终实现外汇储备安全合理和国民经济持续健康地发展。
【参考文献】
[1] 邓晓馨：论我国外汇储备风险管理的战略性调整[J].商业时代，2012（1）.
[2] 孔立平：次贷危机后中国外汇储备资产的风险反优化配置[J].国际金融研究，2009（8）.
[3] 陈雨露、张成思：全球新型金融危机与中国外汇储备管理的战略调整[J].国际金融研究，2008（11）.
[4] 张曙光、张斌：外汇储备持续积累的经济后果[J].经济研究，2007（4）.
[5] 夏斌：解决我国外汇储备过多问题之我见[J].宏观经济管理，2007（1）.
（责任编辑：胡婉君）
近年来，人民币对美元汇率出现了多轮上升行情，屡创汇改后的新高，而且没有任何反转迹象。对此，人们不免将日元升值的历史过程与当前人民币的升值联系起来看，有关议论纷至沓来，各种论点莫衷一是。究竟人民币升值和国际化与日元升值和国际化的历史过程有什么不同和相同？人民币是否会重蹈日元的覆辙？美元长期性和战略性贬值的出发点是什么？人民币国际化战略如何实施？需要我们从多方面和深层次进行评估和分析。
一、人民币升值与日元升值的可比性
首先，从历史背景的角度进行比较和分析，日元升值的历史过程与人民币的现实情况有着很大的不同。二战后在国际体系中日美经济、政治关系带有一定的依附性，日元在国际货币体系中与美元霸权地位不在同一层面，同样带有一定的依附性，需要服从于美国主导下的国际汇率调整和需要，由此决定了日元在西方货币体系中的从属地位，日元汇率的变动要看美国的“脸色”，取决于美元的走势。上世纪70年代初，美国宣布停止美元和黄金兑换，西方十国财长于1971年12月在华盛顿签署了著名的《史密森协议》（smithsonian agreement），决定将日元汇率升值16.8%，至此国际汇率制度进入了浮动汇率时代，从而也开启了日元升值的历史过程。1985年9月，西方国家又签署了对日元走势带有深刻影响的《广场协议》（Plaza Accord），日元急速升值的“序幕”就此拉开，至今日元都没能摆脱这两个协议的阴影。而从当前人民币升值和汇率形成机制看，人民币的升值则与之前日元的升值截然不同，不同之处在于人民币的升值和我国的汇率形成机制不依附任何国家和货币关系，体现的是汇率的自主权，从而决定了人民币汇率机制的国家主体。因此，从这一层面上讲，目前人民币的升值不是屈服于外部的压力，与日元升值过程有着实质性的区别。
其次，纵观日元升值的历史演变，大致经历了三次大幅度的升值过程。第一次升值始于上世纪70年代初，止于70年代末，持续时间长达7年，其间升值超过了95%。第二次升值始于上世纪80年代中期，止于90年代中期，持续时间有10年之久，其间升值超过了200%。第三次升值始于上世纪末，延续至今，持续时间已经超过10年，迄今为止升值也在8%以上。在这三次过程中，日元对美元累积升值了不下400%，从最初的约360日元兑1美元升至目前的约76日元兑1美元，日元始终笼罩在升值的阴霾下。而从人民币升值的情况看，我国启动人民币汇率形成机制改革的7年间，虽然人民币对美元升值步伐渐渐加快，但人民币升值依然没有出现不可控制的大幅上涨，与日元升值比较相对稳健和富有弹性，是一个循序渐进的升值过程。因此，人民币升值过程与日元升值过程的区别在于前者是急剧不可控的升值过程，而后者是渐进可控的升值过程，在这一点上同样有着质的区别，可比性也不大。
当然，不可否认，人民币升值与日元升值毕竟也有类似或相同之处，即“美元因素”在起作用。从日元升值的历史过程看，当年日本经济和贸易的快速发展，使日本对美贸易顺差过大和外汇储备增长过快，为了减少贸易逆差和减轻就业压力，美国采取了美元贬值的汇率政策，从而导致日元升值压力增大。而当前人民币升值的国际压力与当年日本的情况相似，也主要来自美元的主动性贬值和人民币一定程度的被动升值。从这方面看，美元贬值无论是对日元还是人民币都同样能够形成升值压力，而“美元因素”又来自美国为扭转贸易逆差和增加就业方面的需要，以及缓解国内政治压力的考虑。因此，人民币升值与日元升值又有着惊人的相似之处。
目前，中美汇率之争的焦点主要围绕在人民币是否应该升值和人民币汇率形成机制上。美方批评人士，特别是国会议员纷纷指责称，中国一直在通过市场干预维持人民币的低汇率水平，使得中国出口更加廉价，也更具吸引力，中国的汇率政策使美国的就业状况持续恶化。在美国国内各种舆论的压力下，奥巴马政府也加入了人民币汇率的“声讨”行列，多次公开表示，如果中方不允许人民币自由浮动，将采取更强硬的手段。中国总理温家宝则就人民币汇率问题指出，人民币的币值没有低估，中国将保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。中国人民银行行长周小川就人民币汇率形成机制问题也指出，人民币汇率形成机制是不断演变和完善的过程，我国实行的是以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，汇率在合理、均衡水平上保持基本稳定。一些相关机构和一些学者认为，保持人民币汇率的基本稳定有利于全球经济的复苏，同时指出美国对华贸易逆差的形成与人民币汇率低估没有必然的联系，美国再次重提人民币汇率问题依然是故伎重演，为其贸易保护主义政策和下一步对中国商品征收高额关税寻找借口。
二、吸取日元升值的历史教训
从当前的经济形势和国际经济环境看，我国尽管不能等同于当年的日本，但也不是没有相同点。深刻认识日元升值和国际化过程的历史教训，引以为戒，避免重蹈日元覆辙，是当前人民币升值和国际化进程下需要探讨和考虑的现实问题。因此，既有必要回顾日元升值和国际化的历史过程及其对日本经济的影响，也有必要从两国不同时期国内经济发展形势和所面临的外部环境进行比较，为探索人民币汇率形成机制提供更多的借鉴，树立“预则立，不预则废”的理念，未雨绸缪。从日元三次升值过程看，在此期间都伴随着出口不同程度的下降和经济增长的严重衰退，虽然现阶段人民币的升值对我国经济形势的影响还远远没有达到日元三次升值的严重程度，但其影响已初显端倪。
从国内经济形势和经济结构以及增长模式上看，目前我国与上世纪70年代初的日本相比，国民生产总量上分别居世界第二位（中国）和第三位（日本），外汇储备总量均居世界前列；增长模式上同属粗放型，当年日本的经济增长主要依赖设备投资和出口拉动，目前我国经济增长主要依靠投资和出口来带动，经济发展规模和增长模式相近。从所面临的国际环境看，当年日本经常账户盈余与美国的巨额经常账户赤字形成了鲜明的反差，为日元的升值带来了巨大的国际压力，而目前我国的情况与当年日本的情况有共同之处，人民币升值同样也面临着日益加重的国际压力。从人民币升值与日元升值带来的影响看，当年日本政府为消除日元升值带来的负面影响，采取了扩大内需的经济刺激政策，前日本内阁总理田中角荣在1972年竞选自民党总裁时，以候选人身份提出了“改造日本列岛方案”作为政治主张。田中角荣的“日本列岛改造论”即通过扩大内需的经济刺激政策改造日本经济，使日本经济有更多的发展空间。但事与愿违，在“日本列岛改造论”氛围不断升温的情况下，盲目追求经济的发展带来的却是股市和地价飞涨以及日元的进一步升值，最终导致日本出现了严重的通货膨胀和经济停滞。在人民币升值的情况下，目前我国也面临着通货膨胀压力的增大和经济放缓的问题，虽然这还不能被视为在重蹈日元升值的覆辙，但日本的前车之鉴需要我们加以防范，不可对人民币升值后续的影响掉以轻心。尽管中国多次面临被美国列为“汇率操纵国”的威胁，但目前人民币汇率依然保持着相对稳定，并没有因此而出现大的波动。即便美国将中国列为“汇率操纵国”，也未必能够解决中美贸易不均衡的问题。根据美国贸易法案，列为“汇率操纵国”只是启动有关停止干预汇率的谈判，而且美国曾多次将中国以及其他国家列为“汇率操纵国”，也没有能够扭转美国对外贸易逆差不断上升的局面。在国际经贸活动中，各国追求各自的利益纯属正常，出现摩擦和纠纷在所难免，对此，应当通过协商谋求合理解决，而不应一味地采取制裁手段将双边经贸关系带入困境。因此在人民币汇率问题上，中美双方应着眼于未来，共同面对现实。同时，在围绕人民币汇率问题上，中美争论不仅仅反映的是中美在经贸领域上的分歧，也体现着国家利益的博弈，中国的态度折射了中国的主权不容侵犯和国家尊严需要维护的核心利益。
三、美元长期性贬值带来的影响
在一定程度上，人民币和日元升值及国际化无一不是受到美元贬值的影响，这与美元长期性和战略性贬值密切相关。由此可见，人民币升值压力在短期内难以缓解的根本原因是，美元处在长期贬值的状态没有改变，美国的美元战略性贬值策略依然如故，美元进一步贬值的风险依然存在。
从全球层面看，在当前全球还未从经济衰退和金融危机中彻底解脱出来，以及发达国家主权债务愈演愈烈的情况下，如果美国不适度掌握货币的投放量，漠视美元发行的泛滥，那么各国外汇储备“泡沫”将会被进一步放大。事实上，金融危机爆发以来，美国出台的一系列货币政策既有“转嫁”危机的保护主义色彩，又有不负责任的放任货币发行的嫌疑。美元发行的泛滥和贬值对我国影响的程度将逐渐加重，影响的层面也会逐渐扩大，其中更多地体现在人民币升值的压力以及我国国际储备资产价值、国际结算和能源等大宗资源类商品层面价格上涨的风险上。我国如何应对美元发行泛滥和进一步贬值风险“转嫁”带来的冲击，无疑是当前最现实的挑战。从我国国际储备现状看，由于外汇资产储备几乎都是以西方主要货币为主的债券和资金，风险自然大于其他经济体。随着美国两轮“量化宽松政策”的实施，超过万亿国债的发行必然导致美元发行泛滥和潜在的贬值风险增加，我国的外汇资产储备价值也相应面临大幅“缩水”，人民币升值也成为必然。
美元发行的泛滥和贬值风险的增加，已导致全球性通胀压力进一步加重，并带动了新一轮国际大宗商品价格的上涨，导致我国承受更大的通胀和人民币升值压力。另外，美元发行泛滥和贬值风险将导致我国出口更加艰难，出口产品在结算中也将面临巨大损失。实际上近期中国在国际收支和资本流动变化中，已经出现了外汇价值的负增长。因此，鉴于美元发行泛滥导致美元贬值风险，我国货币当局正面临安全与收益之间权衡的两难选择。
从美国现行的货币政策看，尽管美国官方多次反复强调，保持“强势美元”是美国货币政策的基本出发点，但事实上，美国口头上所谓的“强势美元”与实际情况相距较远甚至相悖。因而，所谓口头上的“强势美元”货币政策具有一定的迷惑性。从美国国家利益的角度看，美元长期贬值符合美国的国家利益，是美国官方货币政策的战略取向。美国现行的货币策略是一方面促使人民币升值，另一方面为今后美元贬值作铺垫，从而在对外贸易上可以增加出口，减少进口，减轻不断扩大的贸易逆差带来的压力，平息美国国内对美国对外贸易现状的不满情绪。同时，美元长期贬值又是美国借此减轻不断加重的债务压力最现实的选择。由此可见，美元贬值是美国官方货币政策导向的出发点，反映了美国国家利益选择的主导思路，恐怕这才是美国货币政策的真实意图，美元贬值仍是必然趋势。
当前美国货币政策的核心仍是为缓解市场流动性紧缩，对货币的发行“松绑”，增加货币市场上的货币供应量，扩充资本市场规模，加大流动性。该政策的导向是在金融与经济双重危机情况下，通过货币政策手段“启动”资本市场，以此带动实体经济的恢复。所谓“定量宽松政策”即货币当局“开闸放水”，为开动印钞机大量发行货币寻找借口。美国借用“定量宽松政策”的说辞来印钞票购买国债行为，正是“弱化”美元的货币政策最核心内容的体现。由此，在美国扩张性货币政策的影响下，今后美元潜在的贬值风险仍将存在，美元贬值仍是不可避免的趋势，美国“弱化”美元的意图也会更加清晰。同时，美联储货币政策不仅是美国经济走势的主要影响因素，也关系到全球经济。如果美联储货币政策与其他经济货币政策相悖，势必给全球经济和国际金融市场造成混乱和动荡，毕竟全球货币政策的协调一致既有利于修复全球经济，也有利于国际金融市场的稳定。
四、推动人民币国际化的议论升温
人民币汇率问题和美元长期战略性贬值，使人民币国际化和成为国际性货币的议论不断升温。2009年11月9日在北京召开的“第八届中国金融市场年会”上，关于是否希望人民币成为国际储备货币的问题，有74%的与会者表示赞同，有26%的与会者持否定态度。与此同时，国际货币基金组织驻华代表费达翰表示：人民币成为储备货币有利于降低高额外汇储备风险。无独有偶，此前世界银行行长佐利克就美元和人民币地位问题发表言论表示：如果美国不能很好地处理贸易和财政“双赤字”问题，美元就有可能丧失世界主要储备货币的地位，而人民币有可能在未来15年内成为替代美元的国际储备货币之一。
然而，目前人民币国际化程度是否已经具备了国际储备货币的地位？从中国经济的发展和人民币的地位看，由于中国经济的持续快速发展，中国在世界经济中的地位和作用不断提升，受到世界各国的高度关注，同时人民币的稳定和不断升值及使用范围的扩大，使人民币越来越成为一定区域的“抢手货币”，甚至被部分地区和国家视为一定意义上的储备货币。目前，中国已跃居世界第三大经济体，并且很有可能在不远的将来超越日本，成为世界第二大经济体，由此人民币的国际信誉和地位也将大幅度提升。由于人民币有中国强大经济体的支撑，再加上目前中国政府财政状况良好，而且负债率低，并拥有超过3.2万亿美元的外汇储备，人民币有着巨大的升值空间，这为人民币国际化进程的加快和国际储备货币地位的奠定打下了重要的基础。中国所处的经济地位和高额的外汇储备决定了持有人民币的安全性，人民币如果作为储备货币，不仅风险相对小于美元，而且还有一定的预期升值空间，所以从安全性考虑和保值出发，许多国家和地区支持人民币成为国际储备货币的意愿越来越强烈。此外，随着中国对外经贸地位的不断提高和区域性合作的加强，中国在一些国家和地区以人民币作为贸易和投资结算货币，将进一步扩大人民币在这些国家和地区的流通和广泛使用。而且，中国在海外投资不断扩展，为境外人民币的流通提供了可能性，也为人民币国际化创造了有利条件。那么，人民币要成为国际性货币还有多长的路要走？从现实角度出发，目前人民币国际化问题显然还停留在广泛的议论中，人民币的国际化程度与国际性货币还有相当的距离。首先，人民币是否属于国际性货币取决于是否可自由兑换，目前人民币不可自由兑换决定了人民币不具备成为真正意义上的国际性货币的要件。其次，人民币是否属于国际性货币由市场决定，目前中国市场经济地位仍未得到一些国家和经济体的确认，人民币在国际市场上的流通也不具备条件。再次，人民币国际化需要十分发达的国家金融市场的支撑，而国家金融市场应具备国际金融市场的条件，目前中国上海正在筹划的国际金融市场还未成形，人民币国际化缺乏国际金融市场的依托。因此，按上述条件衡量，人民币国际化程度尽管很高，但距离国际性货币仍有距离。换言之，尽管近年来中国经济总体实力大大增强，人民币国际信誉在部分国家和区域也表现良好，但这并不等于人民币就能成为国际性货币，也不意味着人民币具备了国际性货币的功能，人民币成为国际性货币还需要方方面面因素的配合和条件的配套，因而断言未来人民币将替代美元国际地位为时尚早。
目前，中国汇率政策本着“主动性、可控性和渐进性”的基本原则，结合国际资本流动和主要货币走势变化，不断完善人民币汇率形成机制，这是中国根据国际形势变化对人民币汇率形成机制调整的策略选择。自2005年7月中国启动人民币汇率形成机制改革以来，人民币汇率实现双向浮动，与国际主要货币汇率联动关系明显，特别是国际金融危机爆发后与美元单向挂钩更加紧密，因此人民币升值压力也越来越大。鉴于此，中国货币当局汇率策略的调整需要多方论证，避免美元贬值带来的汇率风险，而以渐进的方式摆脱美元的“束缚”就成为中国汇率策略调整的首要目标。最终汇率选择的目标是，通过人民币国际化使人民币能够随着国际货币市场主要货币的浮动而浮动，使人民币的市场风险在市场中释放，而不是由美元决定人民币汇率的走向。
从总体上看，人民币升值压力将是长期趋势，但不一定就是坏事。人民币升值增强了国内对人民币资产价格的信心，缓解了通胀预期的压力。再有，人民币的强势必然导致市场对人民币国际化强烈愿望的上升，人民币国际化进程也会随着市场的需要进一步加快，而人民币国际化进程的加快使人民币成为国际储备货币的可能性增大，一旦人民币国际化达到了一定程度，或成为国际储备货币，国际货币格局将发生重大变化，国际货币格局的主导将实现多元化。
五、人民币升值与国际化的利弊关系
在当前中美贸易摩擦和争端不断增多的情况下，人民币升值的压力使中国对外贸易面临着双重压力。一方面，中国需要应对美国各种反倾销、反补贴等调查已然应接不暇，接连不断的各类贸易案更是将中国推向贸易摩擦与争端的风口浪尖，中国不可避免地进入了一个贸易摩擦与各种争端的“多事之秋”。另一方面，如果人民币始终不能摆脱美元的“束缚”，人民币国际化程度越深入，就越难避免陷入美元的“陷阱”，在美元的牵制下人民币升值的压力会越来越大，由此人民币汇率何去何从就成为人民币国际化进程中不可回避的问题。
中国货币当局应从外汇储备的存量、流量管理和构成三个层面摆脱困境，既能够保证外汇资产储备的安全，又能够通过购买西方国家债券获得较好的收益。其一，在外汇资产的存量上采取灵活的调整，保持存量的合理与适度。其二，由于流入我国金融市场的投机性“热钱”具有一定的隐蔽性，“热钱”的载体既多样化又很难监测，其规模和走向难以判断，增大了我国资本市场的不确定性，因此对外汇资产流量管理的力度亟待加强。其三，外汇资产储备构成的多样性、稳定性与灵活性之间的权衡选择需要多方论证。从国际性货币的基本功能看，国际性货币主要是各国用于国际收支结算和防范金融风险，如果外汇储备风险加大，外汇储备自身安全得不到保证，在国际收支结算中的损失难以估量，那么本国金融安全也会相应降低，事实上目前国际储备资产的安危已经被美元所左右。而如果从美元储备的风险考虑，中国调整国际储备的构成，仅仅把美元换成欧元、英镑或日元、澳元，以及购买原油期货、贵金属等方面来减少风险并不可取，更不要说无条件的继续大规模购买美国债券。从当前的国际货币市场和期货市场看，国际外汇市场汇率将随着各国货币政策的变化更加反复无常；随着国际经济和金融形势不确定性因素的增多，以及投机性“热钱”的入市和撤离，国际期货市场的中短期风险将不断加大。从上述国际储备构成的调整看，中国的选择余地多，但空间越来越狭窄，甚至会陷入无奈的选择，承受诸多不确定的风险。虽然中国庞大的外汇储备是客观现实，也可以说是无奈之举，但并不等于没有回旋的余地，其中加快人民币国际化进程就是中国长远国际金融战略的必然选择。
对中国来说，目前所面临的是人民币升值的压力以及国际货币体系演变的不确定性。为了减轻在对外贸易与跨境投资等方面对美元的依赖度、降低外汇储备的风险，中国现实的国际金融策略主要有：有步骤地推动人民币国际化进程，加强区域性货币合作，外汇储备向多元化发展。这是当前中国应对国际货币体系的演变、最大程度地减少外汇储备和汇率变化风险最现实的举措。在国际货币体系重建以及世界银行与国际货币基金组织（IMF）改革中，中国曾经提出将IMF的特别提款权（SDR）作为国际储备货币，创设一个超主权货币，抵消美元贬值带来的国际外汇储备风险。尽管设立超主权货币的构想在目前来看极难实现，但前不久IMF债券的发行，被普遍认为解决了短期内缺乏可信的储备货币问题，部分替代了美元的储备功能，相应降低了主权投资的风险。而中国政府认购500亿美元的IMF债券的出发点，正是基于降低国际储备风险的选择，同时也是出于创造超主权国际储备货币的考虑。
中国要在国际金融领域发挥更大的作用，在SDR构成中占有一席之地，完成人民币国际化是中国的历史重任，有许多方面的工作需要做：一是加深人民币国际化程度，现阶段人民币实现可自由兑换也是恰逢其时，实现可自由兑换增加SDR构成的权重份额也就顺理成章。二是与相关国家达成广泛共识并加强合作，既包括新兴经济体和发展中国家，也包括发达国家。三是向IMF提供资金，相应增加中国在IMF权重份额的比重，并在人民币国际化程度不断加深的过程中实现SDR构成的改造。人民币改革进程在不断加快，人民币正在从本国结算货币向区域性结算货币扩展，走向国际贸易结算货币是早晚之事。同时通过双边货币互换，人民币的储备地位在有关国家已成事实，因此人民币国际化必然是大势所趋。当前IMF现有SDR构成的改造，在一定程度上取决于中国的影响和人民币国际化程度是否能够深入，人民币实现自由兑换不仅是中国现实的需要，也是世界货币体系改革的需要。我们必须看到，改革世界货币体系是防范金融危机的必要举措，中国要在国际金融体制改革中发挥更大的作用，不受西方发达国家的牵制，就需要加快人民币的国际化，实现自由兑换。同时，在IMF的改革过程中，中国等新兴经济体国家以及发展中国家不仅需要增加发言权，而且需要打破IMF现有SDR构成格局，减轻国际外汇储备资产对西方货币依赖性的危害和风险，改变美欧联手垄断IMF的局面。当然，实现人民币彻底国际化还有许多工作要做，也需要一定的时间和条件。
【参考文献】
[1] IMF：中华人民共和国：2012年第四条款磋商工作人员报告[R].2012-07-06.
[2] 温家宝总理：2010年3月14日回答记者提问[Z].
[3] 周小川：2010年3月14日回答记者提问[Z].
[4] 田中角荣：日本列岛改造论[M].商务印书馆出版社，1972.
（责任编辑：刘冰冰）
本份文档包含：关于该选题的外文文献 、文献综述
一、外文文献
文献信息
标题: Controlling International Capital Flow: Emerging Economy Experiences 作者: TKim, Yoonbai
期刊名称: SERI Quarterly；第3卷； 第3期；页码：51-63
Controlling International Capital Flow: Emerging Economy Experiences
ABSTRACT
The global financial crisis revealed lingering problems in Korea's financial system, especially large, short-term foreign-currency debt. During the crisis, the Korean won depreciated much more than other East Asia currencies. Enough restrictions in the economy remain to give foreign investors pause and prompt them to flee at the first signs of trouble. A look at how Taiwan and Singapore have managed their monetary policy and reform would be instructive for currency stability.
Keywords： capital controls, global financial crisis, Asian currency crisis, financial markets
CRISIS AND CAPITAL
The 1997 Asian financial crisis was a watershed event in Korea's financial history. In return for the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) funding to survive the crisis, the Korean government accepted the demand for liberalization of financial markets. In the ten years or so since, the government has been earnest in keeping its promises. By the mid-2000s, Korea appeared to be as open as any advanced industrial country in terms of regulations (or lack thereof) on international capital movements. Nonetheless, Korea was not able to escape the spillover of the global crisis in 2008-09 even though its macroeconomic condition appeared to be sound. In fact, the Korean won (KRW) declined more than most other currencies in East Asia, while the equity market tumbled as much as most other countries. There is consensus that both financial crises were at least in part induced by high capital mobility. Liberalization of
the financial markets combined with the abundance of liquidity encouraged international capital flows to emerging market economies. The inflow came to a sudden stop and reversed, giving rise to a currency crisis and bringing down the economy along with it. The illiquidity of financial and nonfinancial business firms was an important cause of financial crises. The currency mismatch - assets in local currency financed by liabilities in foreign currency - and the maturity mismatch - long-term projects (assets) financed by short-term debt - have been pointed out as one of the major weaknesses of the Korean and other crisis-ridden economies.
Have the lessons been learned from these crises? The second crisis revealed that some problems - in particular, large short-term foreigncurrency debt - remained with Korea's financial system. The financial liberalization pursued since the early 1990s and with much more vigor after the 1997 crisis has left the vulnerable segment of the financial sector intact or even more exposed to external or internal shocks.
We review the experiences of Singapore and Taiwan, both of which weathered the 1997 crisis but had to endure the 2008 crisis along with Korea. However, despite their high export dependency and smaller economic size, the extent of currency depreciation was much smaller than that of the Korean won. To the extent that exchange rate stability is important for sound management of macroeconomic environments, we should leam from their experiences.
The two crises, especially the recent one, have brought some major changes in our understanding of international capital movement and its regulations. One is the changing perception about capital controls. In a recent global financial report, the IMF admitted that capital controls were a complementary policy tool in a government's tool kit for dealing with surges of capital that can disrupt exchange rates or asset prices.1 The new study found that such capital controls helped buffer against some of the worst effects of the financial crisis in emerging market economies such as Colombia, Brazil, India, Thailand, and China. Academics such as Dani Rodrik and Guillermo Calvo have been warning about the potentially harmful effects of (short-term) international capital inflows and advocating a reexamination of the standard IMF prescription for developing countries or aid-recipient countries. The
change in the position of the IMF is remarkable as it had previously advocated unrestricted flow of money and capital to and from any countries, regardless of level of development. In this article, we reexamine the role of capital controls in the context of the Korean economy and the global financial crisis.
STORY OFTWO CRISES IN KOREA
Figures 1 and 2 show the movement of the stock price indices and exchange rates against the dollar for seven East Asian countries from January 1990 to April 2010. Both are in logarithm and shown as deviations from the base period of January 2002, which is chosen arbitrarily and roughly the midpoint between the two crises. The magnitudes of the stock market declines during the 1997 crisis are well known. All stock indices fell drastically during the 2008 global financial crisis. In the five crisis-ridden countries shown in Figure IA, stock prices fell 50 percent or more. The declines in stock prices during the 2008 crisis in Singapore and Taiwan as shown in Figure IB are comparable to those of Korea's. In all three countries, the stock price fell by about 50 percent on average, and the overall pattern of movements is surprisingly similar in Korea and Singapore. However, Taiwan seems to have had much less volatility in the stock market over twenty years.
The movements of the exchange rates were quite different. The large decline of the Indonesian rupiah (IDR) during the 1997 crisis and the following recovery is most noticeable. The Malaysian ringgit (MYR) was held at a fixed exchange rate soon after the 1997 crisis until 2005. The Korean won depreciated less than the Indonesian rupiah or the Thai baht (THB), depreciated more than the Singapore dollar (SGD) or the New Taiwan dollar (TWD). The fluctuations after the crisis were surprisingly similar in all countries in Figure 2A although the rupiah showed somewhat greater volatility for a few years after the 1997 crisis. All five currencies had massive depreciation during the 2008 crisis. During the run-up to the 2008 global crisis, the Korean won had shown quite distinctive movement. It appreciated most in the 2005-07 period. Afterwards, it depreciated more than any other currency, collapsing by more than 40 percent compared to the recent peak. The rupiah is next with depreciation of less than 30 percent. The currencies of Singapore and Taiwan shown
in Figure 2B (and Thailand) have been much more stable, depreciating a little more than 12 percent.
Why did the won fall much more than other currencies in East Asia, in particular, the Singapore or Taiwan dollar? Given that the crisis was essentially imported from the United States and European countries and that Singapore and Taiwan have much greater export dependency ratios than Korea, one would expect the won to have depreciated less. One can conjecture that the main transmission channel of the global crisis was more likely in the financial - more specifically - the foreign exchange sector rather than in the real sector such as international trade of goods and services. LIBERALIZATION OF KOREAN FINANCIAL MARKETS
Early stages of rapid growth in Korea occurred in the presence of extensive controls on international capital flows as part of a more general policy of financial repression.2 Financial liberalization during the 1980s was cautious and slow, and the system remained tightly controlled until the early 1990s. The liberalization process was greatly accelerated under the Kim Young Sam government (1993-97). A five-year financial liberalization plan was aimed at, among other things, interest rate deregulation, abolition of policy loans, granting of more managerial autonomy to banks, reduction of entry barriers to financial activities and, most importantly, capital account liberalization.3 The result was a rapid increase in foreign debt. As part of financial reform, banks were allowed to open and expand operations overseas, which led to a sharp increase in foreign currency liabilities of overseas branches that was almost as large as the external debts of domestic branches. Foreign debt nearly trebled from $44 billion in 1993 to $120 billion in September 1997, on the eve of the financial crisis.
Korea's debt was considered within a sustainable range although it was growing fast. One critical problem in Korea's debt structure was its maturity structure. The share of short-term debt (less than a year's maturity) of total debt rose from 47.3 percent in 1993 to an astonishing 58.3 percent at the end of 1996. The rapid buildup of short-term foreign currency debt was led by merchant banks that were newly licensed by the Kim government. Moreover, supervision of the merchant banks was
virtually nonexistent. The government was apparently not even aware of the huge mismatch in the maturity structure between borrowing and lending: while 64 percent of their $20 billion total foreign borrowing was short-term, 85 percent of their lending was long-term.
Liberalization that preceded the 1997 crisis was quite partial and frequently violated standard economic advice about how liberalization should proceed in terms of the necessary preconditions and sequencing. The total amount of domestic and international financial liberalization undertaken by Korea before the 199798 crisis was far less than is often assumed. Even with the completion of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) application plan, the Korean financial system would have remained among the most repressed in Asia.4 President Kim's desire to join the OECD, combined with pressures from the IMF and the US government, may have led to the liberalization of domestic financial markets before existing weaknesses in the banking system could be addressed.5
Perhaps the strangest aspect of Korea's liberalization sequencing was the decision to liberalize short-term capital flows before long-term ones - the exact opposite of the normally recommended sequencing. The result was a domestic credit boom financed heavily by foreign borrowing. The highly leveraged nature of the Korean economy, together with the currency and term mismatches embodied in the mid1990s surge of foreign debt exposure, left the economy vulnerable to a variety of negative shocks, and in 1997, Korea experienced a financial crisis with net clean-up costs that eventually amounted to 16 percent of 2001 GDP.6
Since the 1997 financial crisis, the Korean government has pursued liberalization of financial markets and institutions in Korea. In addition, it has adopted a free-floating exchange rate after dropping a market average exchange rate system in late 1997.7 Even more remarkably, Korea was able to weather a severe financial crisis and accompanying recession without relying on capital controls. Instead, the government saw the need for more and better liberalization, accompanied by greatly strengthened prudential supervision to improve the soundness of the financial system.8 A number of regulations on the banking sector and stock market, particularly
本科毕业论文文献综述
外文文献翻译
学 院： 管理学院
专 业： 物流管理
班 级： 物流061班
学 号： 060201110473
学生姓名： 陈雯
指导教师： 雷德宇
2010年 3 月 30日
目 录
1、Literature Research ................................................................... 2
2、外文文献翻译 .......................................................................... 5
1、Literature Research关于外汇储备的外文文献综述
About logistics, Caplice and Chris. Wood in the paper < International Journal of Logistics Management > talk many views follow :
Logistics Management has four major characteristics ：
(1) in order to achieve customer satisfaction as the first target;
(2) to enterprises as a whole for the purpose of optimal;
(3) with information as the center;
(4) more emphasis on efficient results.
The purpose of the implementation of logistics management is to the lowest possible total cost of conditions to achieve the established level of customer service, or service advantages and seek cost advantages of a dynamic equilibrium, and thus create competitive enterprises in the strategic advantage.
According to this goal, logistics management to solve the basic problem, simply put, is to the right products to fit the number and the right price at the right time and suitable sites available to customers.
Logistics management systems that use methods to solve the problem. Modern Logistics normally be considered by the transport, storage, packaging, handling, processing in circulation, distribution and information constitute part of all.
All have their own part of the original functions, interests and concepts.
System approach is the use of modern management methods and modern technology so that all aspects of information sharing in general, all the links as an integrated system for organization and management, so that the system can be as low as possible under the conditions of the total cost, provided there Competitive advantage of customer service.
Systems approach that the system is not the effectiveness of their various local links-effective simple sum. System means that, there's a certain aspects of the problem and want to all of the factors affecting the analysis and evaluation.
From this idea of the logistics system is not simply the pursuit of their own in various areas of the lowest cost, because the logistics of the link between the benefits of mutual influence, the tendency of mutual constraints, there is the turn of the relationship between vulnerability.
For example, too much emphasis on packaging materials savings, it could cause damage because of their easy to transport and handling costs increased.
Therefore, the systems approach stresses the need to carry out the total cost analysis, and to avoid the second best effect and weigh the cost of the analysis so as to achieve the lowest cost, while meeting the established level of customer service purposes.
Douglas and M.Lamber in the paper< Supply Chain Management:Implementation Issues and Research Opportunities > said:
Along with society's development, the profession competition is day by day intense, how enhances the working efficiency, reduces the management cost, the enhancement service level and enterprise's competitive ability, is each enterprise superintendent most matter of concern.
The thing flows the transportation enterprise as a result of the profession characteristic, the tradition operating process complex, document many, the competition is day by day intense.
The more and more many information question emerges, for example: On the one hand, must develop the customer market unceasingly, to the customer basic document, the cargo distribution
situation, the contact person likes and the contact method has a more comprehensive understanding, on the other hand, must finish financial the receipts and disbursements work, guarantees the transport expense to be able on time receipts and disbursements, the debt to be clear, prompt press for payment.
Formerly consulted the thick document material the procedure, obviously was cannot be taken.
Must adopt more effective solution.
At the same time collects the process information the speed, the information accuracy, the security, but also affects the company whole management level and the decision-making strata to the overall service control and the coordination.
Along with the thing flowing industry development, increased the new content in the supply chain management pattern, thing flowing industry had the new ten major tendencies.:
(1) Thing flows the management from thing processing, promotes to in the thing
value plan design, the solution and the management.
May provides for the customer -like, and has the personalization the service, the enterprise gradually changes emphasized the cross enterprise boundary the conformity, causes the
maintenance and the management which the customer relates changes more and more importantly.
(2) Changes the union by the opposition.
In the traditional commercial channel, the enterprise mostly take as the center, pursues the self- benefit, therefore often makes the aspect which the enterprise opposes.
However in under the pursue bigger competitive power actuation, many enterprises starts in each commercial circulation function the conformity, through the union plan and the work, forms highly the conformity supply chain channel relations, causes the channel overall result and the effect large promotion.
(3) changes the final survey by the forecast.
The traditional circulation pattern carries on each thing through the forecast downriver
channel resources to flow the work activity, unfortunately forecasts very little can accurate, thus has wasted many natures and the commercial resources.
The emerging thing flows the management tendency is emphasized the channel member's union mechanism, between the member is willing to exchange transport business and the strategy information upstream, in particular internal demand and the production material, causes the enterprise not to need to forecast, the circulation pattern changes the final survey foundation development gradually by the forecast foundation.
(4) Accumulates by the experience changes the vicissitude strategy.
The empirical curve has since always been the enterprise uses for to analyze the market competition tendency and the development correspondence strategy method, and the experience which accumulates by the enterprise elders takes the main competition weapon, however the science and technology flies suddenly the progress, the enterprise defends stubbornly already has the experience instead to become the barrier which the enterprise develops, therefore in under the dispatch change environment, the experience and the extant channel foundation structure instead becomes the barrier which most difficult to overcome, the success enterprise must establish to the关于外汇储备的外文文献综述
strategy direction sense of smell and continues the vicissitude management system to be able to survive.
(5) Changes the relative value by the absolute value.
The traditional finance appraisal will look only some absolute values, the new appraisal
method emphatically in the relative value creation, that is will provide adds the value service in the channel, in the value which the customer will increase the enterprise may account for how many proportions.
(6) Changes the procedure conformity by the function conformity.
In the competition channel intense environment, the enterprise must day by day in a quicker response, the downriver customer's need, thus must effective conformity various departments' transport business, and acts by the procedure -like operating system, the thing flows the work and the activity has the cross function mostly, cross enterprise's characteristic, therefore the procedure type conformity is the thing class manages the successful key point.
(7)Changes the hypothesized conformity by the vertical conformity.
In the traditional channel, some big enterprises carry on the channel the vertical conformity, to through grasps by the time has a bigger strength, the fact proved this is not successful, instead dispersed enterprise's resources, and weakens the principal work.
(8) Changes the information share by the information retention.
Under the supply chain management structure, supplies in the chain to be connected the enterprise to have to supply the information which the chain conformity needs to share with other enterprises, otherwise, is unable to form the effective supply chain system.
(9) Changes the knowledge study by the training.关于外汇储备的外文文献综述
In future which may foresee, any thing flows the procedure to complete by the manpower. However, the thing flows the work to need to flow the foothold and in mostly the transportation network in each thing carries on, probably some 90% time, the thing flows the manager to be unable to perform to monitor personally.
Globalization development tendency, also increased the thing to flow the human resources management the order of complexity. The thing flows the manager to have by the individual personnel skill training way, changes the knowledge foundation the study development.
(10) Changes the value management by management accounting.
Future many enterprises will be willing to invest many resources establishments basic accountant the system, in will provide the increment creation emphatically, the cross enterprise's management information, by the time will be able the true approval creation value work, but must only will lie in the income to increase, in cost fluctuation.
附录
Rethinking Fast Growth in China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves
I．Introduction
Since2000, China’s foreign exchange reserves have been growing fast. By the end of2001, China’s foreign exchange reserves had exceeded US$200bn and by the end of 2002 hadreached US$286.4bn. By the end of2003, it had reached US$403.3bn and in 2004 it reachedUS$609.9bn. In l 999, China’s foreign exchange reserves accounted for l 5.6 percent of itsGDP. The ratio has been growing continually and Was 36.88 percent of GDP by 2004, making China the second largest foreign exchange reserve holder in the worldafter Japan. Statistics released by Japan’s Ministry ofFinance on 7 July 2005 show that by the end of June the same year, Japan’foreign exchange reserve were valued at US$43.5bn.
China has reserves ofUS$771 bn by the end ofJune 2005. However, China has a larger ratioofforeign exchange reserve to GDP than Japan. In 2005, China’s ratio offoreign exchangereserve to GDP was 37 percent, whereas that of Japan was 18 percent. By the end ofDecember 2005, China’s foreign exchange reserves had expanded further to reach US$818.87bn.
II．Cause of China’s Sustained High Growth
of Foreign Exchange Reserves
The main reason for China’s sustained fast-expanding foreign exchange reserves in recentyears, is continual surpluses in the current and capital accounts of China’s balance ofpayments. In terms of sources, foreign exchange reserves can be divided into creditor’s rights-based reserve and debt-based reserve. The former is reserve from current accounts, whereas the latter is from the capital accounts．Foreign exchange reserves of developingcountries are mainly composed ofdebt-based reserve. Since the latter halfofthe 1990s, thestructure of China’s foreign exchange reserve sources has undergone significant change. From 1994 to 1996, China’s foreign exchange reserves were mainly composed of debt-based reserve. The increased foreign exchange
reserves mainly came from capital accountsurplus, which mainly resulted from the increase in foreign direct investment(FDI)．Since 1997, the creditor’s rights segment ofChina’s foreign exchange reserves has gradually becomemore increased. However, during 2003-2004 the debt-based reserve rebounded dramatically. In that period,the capital account surplus soared from US$52.726bn in 2003 to US$110.66bnin2004, andChina’s foreignexchangereservesincreasedbyUS$206.681bnin2004. Thiswasclosely related to the continually growing expectations toward renminbi revaluation and theinflux ofinternational“hot money”in pursuit of speculative gains.
It is noteworthy that since 2004, the expectation for renminbi appreciation has beengrowing continually and a large amount of speculative capitalhas swarmed in. The Central Bank has adopted a compulsory foreign exchange settlement policy to maintainthe relative stability of the renminbi exchange rate, which is an important factor behindexpanding foreign exchange reserves. Seen from the current situation and the developmenttrend in the near future, the factors that have caused expansion ofChina’s foreign exchangereserves will continue.
Admittedly, the sustained surpluses in the current and capital accounts of China’s balance of payments in recent yearsare the main reason for its continually fast-expanding foreign exchange reserves. However, two fundamental factors are worthconsidering：(i)flaws in the formation of the renminbi exchange rate regime are theinstitutional root cause of sustained high growth offoreign exchange reservesand(ii)thevarious theoretical misconceptions about China’s foreign exchange reserves have swayedpolicies and contributed to the sustained fast growth in China’s foreign exchange reserves.
In terms ofinstitutional causes, the eruption ofthe 1997 Asian financial crisis held back the process of the China’s reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime.The renminbi came under great pressure to depreciate. To maintain the stability of the renminbi exchange rate, there was a forceddeparturefromtheoriginal“managedfloating exchange rate regime.”Inthewakeofthe crisis, the Chinese economy was afected by the global economic recession and worseningdeflation, whichhas graduallymadetherenminbiexchangerateregime shifttoafactor“US-dollar-pegged fixed exchange rate regime.”Apart from the external impacts, the errors inChina’s macroeconomic policies an d strategies, such as those concerning foreign trade, foreign capital, foreign exchange reserve and industrial policies, have led to a distortion in theformation ofthe renminbi exchange rate regime．An obvious feature of
that distortion is thecompulsory settlement and sales of foreign exchange in the banks, and the closed inter-bankforeign exchange market. In such an institutional framework, the implementation of thecompulsory foreign exchange settlement and sales, the convertibility ofthe current accountsandtheCentralBank’s controlontheforeign exchangepositionofthebanksdesignatedforforeign exchange operations have meant that banks, enterprises andresidents unable to holdforeign exchangeattheirownwil1. The CentralBank,meanwhile, holdsaconsiderableamountofforeign exchangeintheform ofstateforeign exchangereserves. Suchan arrangementwilldefinitely lead to the sustained an d accelerated expansion of foreign exchange reserves.
In terms of policy orientation, there have long been many theoretical misconceptions regardingthebasicfunctionsandrolesofforeign exchange reserves：forexample, that foreignexchange reserves equal economic strength, exaggeration ofthe function offoreign exchangereserves, and accumulating reserves without definite andjustifiable reasons. All these factorshave strongly pushed the sustained high growth of China’s foreign exchange reserves.
III．Analysis of the Theoretical Misconceptions on
China's Foreign Exchange Reserves
1．Regarding the Opinion that Foreign Exchange
Reserves Equal Economic Strength
Since the 1990s, there has been a popular opinion that the more foreign exchange reservesChina has, the better it is, and that the growth offoreign exchange reserves reflects China’s economic strength and improvement of its international status. The rapid growth in foreignexchange reserves is seen as a sign of sound economic operation. In reality, this is a biasedviewpoint that fails to appreciate China’s actual economic condition．
Foreign exchange reserve is a balancing item for international payments, which isclosely related to various aspects of the economy and to changes in the worldeconomy. Inconsidering the rational scale of foreign exchange reserves, one must take into accountvarious factors in the economy，including the scale and development pace of the nationaleconomy, the level ofeconomic opening up and foreign dependency, the level and structureofforeign trade development, the level ofutilization offoreign investment and the capacityoffinancinginternationally, theefficiencyofeconomic adjustmentand regulation, andtheforeign exchange management system. From an international perspective，developedcountries are more
powerful in terms of overall national strength, and have bettermacroeconomic regulation frameworks. Their home currencies are convertible and can beused for international payments. Therefore, theirdemand for foreign exchange reserves isrelatively weak. In contrast, developing countries are fettered by a low development level, with an imperfect macroeconomic regulation system. They are short of foreign exchangeresources and their home currencies are often not suitable for international use. Therefore, they are highly dependent on the international market and have a stronger demand forforeign exchange reserves．
Indeterminingarational scaleofforeign exchangereserves,
conditions,
system, unstable
In Chinaneedsto standards, thatis, macroeconomy, addition, beawareoftheinternationallyacceptedempirical andtoconsideritsownactualeconomic theimperfectmacroeconomicregulation imperfectmarketeconomic exchangeregime, system,relativelyfragilefinancialsystemandforeign andinconvertibilityoftherenminbi.
Chinaisundergoingeconomictransitionandfacesmany uncertainties. Therefore, it needs to hold reserves to cope with possible contingencies. However, thisdoesnotmean thatthemore reserves are，thebetteroftheeconomywillbe . There areseveral reasons，as follows：
(1)EverythingNeeds to be “within Limits,”and so does the Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserves
(2)The Scale ofForeign Exchange Reserves does not Necessarily Represent the OverallEconomic Strength ofa Country
(3)InGeneral,GrowthofForeignExchangeReservesdoesnotNecessarilyhaveaPositiveCorrelation with Economic Operation
2. Exaggeration of the Function of Foreign Exchange Reserves
With the rapid development offinancial globalization, the basic functions offoreign exchangereserve have also undergone changes. The demand for foreign exchange reserves is notonly for transactions and risk prevention, but there isalso“development-oriented demand'’. Especially in the case of emerging-marketcountries, increasing attention is often paid toforeign exchange reserves as a way to boost public morale, strengthen internationalcredibility, to improve financing capacity in the international market and to reduce reform risks. Such demand for foreign exchange reserves is called development-oriented demand. There has been development in the understanding of the function of the foreign
exchangereserve. In the past, the use of foreign exchange reserves was confined to coping withinternational payment deficits and maintaining exchan ge rate stability ofhome currencies. Now it is used as a means to safeguard the international reputation of a country and toenhance its competitive edge in the international market. However, a one-sidedunderstanding of the role change has led to the specious view that change in the quantityofforeign exchange reserves is an important criterion or confidence index for measuring thesoundness of the macroeconomy. In this view, the main function of the foreign exchangereserve does not lie in its utility, but in its role as an index. For that reason, it has graduallybecome a mainstream opinion that the more foreign exchange reserves a country has, theberet it will be. The function of foreign exchange reserve has been deified and its role ofadjustment of international payments has been exaggerated. In reality, the role of foreignexchange reserve in adjusting international payments and preventing financial crisis islimited and has two main functions, which are outlined in the following two sections．
(1)Foreign Exchange Reserves can Only Adjust Temporary Imbalance of InternationalPayments
It is only a temporary measure to use foreign exchange reserves to balance internationalpayments. It is implemented only for saving time in domestic economic restructuring. Whena country encounters a large amount of deficit in international payments over a relativelylong period of time, although foreign exchange reserves can be used to intervene in theprocess, its role will be limited no matter how large the scale of the reserve is. If foreignexchange reserves were to diminish rapidly, public confidence might collapse, which mighthave a disastrous impact on domestic economic development.
(2)Large-scale Foreign Exchange Reserves are not the Decisive Factor in thePreventionofFinancial Crisis
The Asian financial crisis that broke out in the 1990s is a typical case for the study ofmodern financiaI crisis. Some Asian economies became severely affected as a result ofinterest rate changes in international markets, increases in foreign debt, abnormal changesin international capital flow and the speculative attack by international hot money. Althoughthose countries were all holding high level of foreign exchange reserves before the crisisburst out, they still could not manage to survive the attack of large quantities of speculativecapita1. The main reason is that the causes of the crisis were complicated. They includewrong government policies, a
How to Write a Literature Review ?
I. The definition of Literature Review
文献综述（Literautre Review）是科研论文中重要的文体之一。它以作者对各种文献资料的整理、归纳、分析和比较为基础，就某个专题的历史背景、前人的工作、研究现状、争论的焦点及发展前景等方面进行综合、总结和评论。通过阅读文献综述，科研工作者可花费较少的时间获得较多的关于某一专题系统而具体的信息，了解其研究现状、存在的问题和未来的发展方向。
II. The purposes of literature review And Its Components
A. The Purposes
On the one hand, it helps you broaden the view and perspective of the topic
for your graduation thesis.
On the other hand, it helps you narrow down the topic and arrive at a focused
research question.
B. Its Components
There are six parts in a complete Literature Review.
标题与作者(title and author)
摘要与关键词(abstract and key words)
引言(introduction)
述评(review)
结论(conclusion)
参考文献(references)
III. Classification of Source Materials
How can we locate the materials relevant to our topics better and faster?
Basically, all these source materials may be classified into four majors of
sources.
A: Background sources:
Basic information which can usually be found in dictionaries and
encyclopedia complied by major scholars or founders of the field. Three very
good and commonly recommenced encyclopedias are encyclopedias ABC,
namely, Encyclopedia Americana, Encyclopedia Britannica, and Collier’s
Encyclopedia. There are also reference works more specialized, such as The
Encyclopedia of Language and Linguistics for linguistics and TEFL studies.
Moreover, you may also find Encyclopedia on the web.
B: Primary sources
Those providing direct evidence, such as works of scholars of the field,
biographies or autobiographies, memoirs, speeches, lectures, diaries, collection
of letters, interviews, case studies, approaches, etc. Primary sources come in
various shapes and sizes, and often you have to do a little bit of research about
the source to make sure you have correctly identified it. When a first search
yields too few results, try searching by broader topic; when a search yields too
many results, refine your search by narrowing down your search.
C: Secondary sources
Those providing indirect evidence, such as research articles or papers, book
reviews, assays, journal articles by experts in a given field, studies on authors or
writers and their works, etc. Secondary sources will inform most of your writing
in college. You will often be asked to research your topic using primary sources,
but secondary sources will tell you which primary sources you should use and
will help you interpret those primary sources. To use theme well, however, you
need to think critically them. There are two parts of a source that you need to
analyze: the text itself and the argument within the text.
D: Web sources
The sources or information from websites. Web serves as an excellent
resource for your materials. However, you need to select and evaluate Web
sources with special care for very often Web sources lack quality control. You
may start with search engines, such as Google, Yahoo, Ask, Excite, etc. It’s a
good idea to try more than one search engine, since each locates sources in its
own way. When using websites for information, be sure to take care for the
authorship and sponsorship. If they are both unclear, be critical when you use
information. The currency of website information should also be taken into
account. Don’t use too out information dated for your purpose.
IV. Major strategies of Selecting Materials for literature review
A. Choosing primary sources rather than secondary sources
If you have two sources, one of them summarizing or explaining a work and
the other the work itself, choose the work itself. Never attempt to write a paper
on a topic without reading the original source.
B. Choosing sources that give a variety of viewpoints on your thesis
Remember that good argument essays take into account counter arguments.
Do not reject a source because it makes an argument against you thesis.
C. Choosing sources that cover the topic in depth
Probably most books on Communicative Language Teaching mention William
Littlewood, but if this your topic, you will find that few sources cover the topic
in depth. Choose those.
D. Choosing sources written by acknowledged experts
If you have a choice between an article written by a freelance journalist on
Task-based Teaching and one written by a recognized expert like David Nunan,
Choose the article by the expert.
E. Choosing the most current sources
If your topic involves a current issue or social problem or development in a
scientific field, it is essential to find the latest possible information. If all the
books on these topics are rather old, you probably need to look for information in
periodicals.
V. Writing a literature Review
A. When you review related literature, the major review focuses should be:
1. The prevailing and current theories which underlie the research problem.
2. The main controversies about the issue, and about the problem.
3. The major findings in the area, by whom and when.
4. The studies which can be considered the better ones, and why.
5. Description of the types of research studies which can provide the basis for the current theories and controversies.
6. Criticism of the work in the area.
B. When you write literature review, the two principles to follow are:
1. Review the sources that are most relevant to your to your thesis.
2. Describe or write your review as clear and objective as you can.
C. Some tips for writing the review:
1. Define key terms or concepts clearly and relevant to your topic.
2. Discuss the least-related references to your question first and the most
related references last.
3. Conclude your review with a brief summary.
4. Start writing your review early.
VI. 文献综述主要部分的细节性提示和注意事项
主要部分细节提示：
引言(Introduction)
引言是文献综述正文的开始部分，主要包括两个内容：一是提出问题；二是介绍综述的范围
和内容。提出问题时，作者要给出定义性解释、交代研究背景、简单介绍不同文献的看法和
分歧所在并介绍该文献的写作目的；介绍该综述的范围和主要内容时，作者应使用简明扼要
的语句加以概括。
引言的内容和结构具有以下特点：
（1）综述的引言通常包括定义性解释、研究背景、现存问题或分歧、综述的目的、内容和
范围；
（2）使用一般现在时介绍背景知识，使用现在完成时叙述他人成果，使用一般将来时或一
般现在时简介本文内容；
（3）句子结构力求简洁明了，多用简单句，并列成份较为常见；
（4）以第三人称主语为主，间或使用第一人称复数充当主语。
述评(Review)
述评是文献综述的核心所在，是对引言的展开和深入。根据引言所提出的问题和限定的范围，
作者要对大量有关文献进行系统的整理、归纳、对比和分析，在此基础上列出与主题有关的
所有重要学术观点，然后分别加以论述，以便读者获得全面的了解。回顾前人研究，以时间
为序，由远及近。以有叙有议的方式体现述评的功能，叙前人研究，议其结果、探其原因、
究其不足。
分析评论，特别是表达作者自己的观点时，要客观、谨慎，因此多使用模糊性语言和表推测
的语言形式。
综述的结论(Conclusion）
结论不仅是作者对全文的总结，也是作者发表个人意见的部分，一般有标题Conclusion 或
Summary，较短的综述如果没有小标题，则往往有As mentioned above，To sum up，To
conclude，Inshort，In all 等短语引出结论。结论的内容包括：对述评的归纳、对各种问
题的评论性意见、对未来研究的建议或展望。
二．注意事项
⒈搜集文献应尽量全面。掌握全面、大量的文献资料是写好综述的前提，否则，随便搜集一 点资料就动手撰写是不可能写出好的文献综述，甚至写出的文章根本不成为综述。
⒉注意引用文献的代表性、可靠性和科学性。在搜集到的文献中可能出现观点雷同，有的 文献在可靠性及科学性方面存在着差异，因此在引用文献时应注意选用代表性、可靠性和 科学性较好的文献。
⒊引用文献要忠实文献内容。由于文献综述有作者自己的评论分析，因此在撰写时应分清 作者的观点和文献的内容，不能篡改文献的内容。
⒋参考文献不能省略。有的科研论文可以将参考文献省略，但文献综述绝对不能省略，而 且应是文中引用过的，能反映主题全貌的并且是作者直接阅读过的文献资料。
5.文献综述不应是对已有文献的重复、罗列和一般性介绍，而应是对以往研究的优点、不足和贡献的批判性分析与评论。因此，文献综述应包括综合提炼和分析评论双重含义。
6.文献综述要文字简洁，尽量避免大量引用原文，要用自己的语言把作者的观点说清楚，从原始文献中得出一般性结论。
7. 文献综述不是资料库，要紧紧围绕课题研究的“问题”，确保所述的已有研究成果与本课题研究直接相关，其内容是围绕课题紧密组织在一起，既能系统全面地反映研究对象的历史、现状和趋势，又能反映研究内容的各个方面。
8. 文献综述的综述要全面、准确、客观，用于评论的观点、论据最好来自一次文献，尽量避免使用别人对原始文献的解释或综述。
VII. A Sample of Literature Review
A Study of Chinese Vogue Expressions and Translations
Although we can see the obtained achievements in researching on Chinese vogue expressions, papers on the translation of contemporary Chinese vogue expressions are scarce and rare, not to mention the discussion of translation methods and untranslatability of Chinese vogue expressions, which is a great regret in the field of vogue expressions. Few representative papers on Chinese vogue expressions translation are listed as follows: A Study of Shooting Star Language Translation(Wang Jian, Zhou Yongping, 2005:92～94); Cultural Reflection on Vogue Words Translation (Su Yu, Wang Ting, 2011:50 ～ 51); The optimization of “Zero Translation” in Translating Vogue Words (Shi Rui, 2010:102～105).
Hence, the numbers of researches on contemporary Chinese vogue expressions translation are expected to be increased and the comprehensive and detailed researches on this field are also expected to appear. Since 1990s, scholars have already paid attention to Chinese vogue expressions, but the research at that time is still in the stage of tentative exploration. Some representative papers are: City Buzzwords and Social-Cultural Analysis (Sun Manjun,1996:101～107) discusses the development and changes of buzzwords in the current society facing transformation as well as the relation between buzzwords and background of social culture and psychological changes of urban people; Metaphorically Semantic Generalization of Vogue Expressions (Liu Dawei,1997:35 ～ 38) talks about the semantic generalization of metaphors of vogue expressions; Study on Creativity and Homoplasy of Language from Vogue Expressions (Xia Lihong, 1999:16～18) treats the development process of vogue expressions from the characteristics of creativity
and homoplasy, believing that vogue expressions are originally the “creativity” used in a certain range, and finally surpass the original range of use because of the interaction among people and the homoplasy of aesthetic interests. Due to the characteristics of timeliness, periodicity and randomness, some vogue expressions can not be included in common dictionaries, therefore, language scholars carried out the work of compiling vogue expressions dictionaries, such as Dictionary of Contemporary Chinese Vogue Expressions (Xiong Zhongwu, 1992), andBeijing Modern Buzzwords (Zhou Yimin, 1992).
After entering 21st century, increasingly great number of Chinese vogue expressions emerges and penetrates into different aspects of social life; accordingly, related researches on Chinese vogue expressions become comparatively richer. Researching on Chinese vogue expressions has already become the hot topic of linguistic and cultural circles. The Linguistic will contribute to the filed of Chinese vogue expressions and make references forothers who are interested in contemporary Chinese vogue expressions and their Translations.
References
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王三兴
摘要：论文首先辨析并界定了国际储备、外汇储备和适度（外汇）储备等几个概念；在对适度外汇储备文献进行梳理后，论文按照时间顺序和重要程度把这些文献分为比例法、经验研究、成本收益法三个部分来综述；论文最后对文献进行了全面总结和评价。
关键词：外汇储备；适度规模；述评
Reviewoftheliteratureonoptimalreserves
Wangsanxing
Abstract:Thepaperfirstlydistinguishesandredefinessomeconceptssuchasinternationalreserves,foreignreservesandoptimalreserves;Secondly,thepaperclassifiesthoseclassicalpapersonoptimalreservesintothreepartsaccordingtotimesequenceandpriorities.Finally,thepaperthoroughlysummarizesandcommentingliteraturesabovementioned.
Keywords:foreignreserve;optimalreserves;review
作者简介：
王三兴，安徽合肥人，1974——,中国人民大学经济学博士,安徽大学副教授。
作者感谢中国人民大学经济学院杜厚文教授在博士论文写作期间给予的指导和帮助。作者联系方式：
通讯地址：安徽省合肥市肥西路3号安徽大学管理学院
邮政编码：230039
联系电话：0551-3639738；13965131788电子信箱：[email protected];[email protected]
摘要：论文首先辨析并界定了国际储备、外汇储备和适度（外汇）储备等几个概念；在对适度外汇储备文献进行梳理后，论文按照时间顺序和重要程度把这些文献分为比例法、经验研究、成本收益法三个部分来综述；论文最后对文献进行了全面总结和评价。
关键词：外汇储备；适度规模；述评
一、国际储备、外汇储备与适度（外汇）储备
国际储备是一国货币当局为弥补国际收支逆差、维持本国货币汇率的稳定以及应付各种紧急支付而持有的、为世界各国所普遍接受的资产。单从传统国际储备的功能上来看，一国的国际储备相当于一个家庭的储蓄和一个公司所保持的流动现金，其给外界传递的信息就是该国政府有多大能力偿付到期外债和维持其货币购买力，对本国公民来说则是该国政府能在多大程度上平滑进出口以保持经济稳定发展。在一些经济文献中，国际储备有时又被称为“国际清偿力”1，但事实上两者是有区别的2。狭义的外汇储备是一国货币当局持有的国际储备货币，这仅仅只是国际储备资产的一部分，黄金储备、SDRs和基金组织的储备头寸都担当了同样职能3。
在金本位时期，黄金还是最主要和最重要的储备资产，二战结束后，随着金本位制度被布雷顿森林体系所取代，黄金在国际储备资产中的地位也逐渐被外汇资产所替代，在20世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系崩溃及黄金“非货币化”4后，外汇资产在国际储备中的地位进一步提高5。虽然1960年官方黄金储备额占国际储备总额的比重高达2/3，但在1999年末这一比重却下降到不足3%6。但国际储备理论研究并没有像国际储备结构变迁那样从黄金储备转移到外汇储备，而是一直把组成国际储备资产的四种形式作为一个整体来研究。因此，在我们回顾过去50多年世界储备的变化时，黄金确实不能被排除在外。所以，本文适度外汇储备理论文献中的外汇储备概念并不是指“狭义的外汇储备”，而是包含四类资产的国际储备，或称之为“广义的外汇储备”7。
对外汇储备规模较为集中的研究可以划分为两段时期。一个是在20世纪60年代开始直到80年代初。在60年代，当时由于布雷顿森林体系中所规定的固定1如P.B.Kenen,1960,“InternationalLiquidityandthebalanceofpaymentsofareserve-currency
country”,QJE,vol.74,No.4,R.Cloweretc,1968,“ThePresentstateofinternationalliquidity
theory”,AER,vol.58,No.2等。
2从内容上看，国际清偿力的范围要比国际储备大；从性质上看，国际清偿力的使用是有条件的；从数量上看，国际储备只是国际清偿力的一部分。
3H.R.Heller(1966)也从国际储备的功能上得出了其由外汇资产，黄金，SDRs和基金组织头寸所组成。4参考1978年4月1日生效的《国际货币基金协定》第二次修正案第十八章第三节部分。5或许出于这个原因，不少文献在对20世纪80、90年代金融危机决定因素的实证研究中都剔除了黄金（R.Floodetal,2002）。
6IMF，InternationalFinancialStatistics。
7为了全文名称的统一，后面一律用“外汇储备”或“储备”来替代“国际储备”。
汇率制使得全球外汇储备（主要是美元储备）显得不足，尤其对于发展中国家来说更是如此。这自然引起了对适度储备规模及其调整方式的广泛关注，并诞生了许多理论，但这些理论所赖以建立的基础并不令人信服，这其中也由于问题本身的模糊性。到了70年代末和80年代初的时候，由于布雷顿森林体系的崩溃和浮动汇率制的盛行8，国际收支可以因应本币汇率变动而自动调节，因此对外汇储备规模的关心开始减少，此时学术界的兴趣主要集中到储备需求在后布雷顿森林时期是否大大减少了，以及发展中国家和发达国家对储备需求的不同。另一个是从20世纪90年代开始直到现在。从90年代开始所接连发生的发展中国家货币和金融危机9彻底让传统的一些适度规模理论失去了光辉的色彩，外汇储备耗尽成为发展中国家经济或金融危机时的一个重要特征，而且危机之前的外汇储备规模是研究预测发生危机的显著变量（BussiereandMulder,1999,ulHaque,KumarandMathieson,1996andDisyatat,2001），以经常帐户为基础的传统外汇储备规模理论已不能够解释与资本帐户紧密相关的金融危机现象。进入21世纪后，发展中国家的储备规模快速增加，尤其是金融危机后东亚国家累积起的巨额外汇储备再次引起了学者的广泛关注，而对适度外汇储备规模的确定也更多的和资本帐户联系起来，这个适度规模不仅要抵抗住国际资本流动的易变性，也要给予政策制定者足够的时间和信心。虽然不少学者已经意识到需要建立新的储备需求模型来解释实际情况，但在研究方法上并没有太大的突破10。
二、适度外汇储备规模文献综述
研究适度外汇储备规模的文献基本可以分为两类：一类是理论研究，另一类就是经验研究11。理论研究文献中采纳的方法主要有比例法、边际分析（成本收益）法、效用最大化以及货币需求模型；经验研究是在理论支撑基础上建立起时间序列（横截面）模型、面板模型、误差修正模型等并使用一些现代计量手段12对不同的样本进行回归检验。由于比例法应用较多以及经验研究文献较为丰富，因此本文对这些文献进行了归纳和总结，比例法总结见表1-1，经验研究文献总结见表1-2。从两个总结表可以看出，这些理论或经验研究的主要区别在于选取的变量不同以及对这些变量选取理由的论证。下面将详细的述评这些方法的差异极其原因。为了逻辑更为清晰，论文把适度外汇储备规模综述分为三个部分：第一部分是对应用比例法研究适度储备规模文献的评述；第二部分是对经验研究文8
9主要是发达国家和拉美等部分发展中国家，当时的东亚国家和地区并没有立即实行浮动汇率制。如墨西哥（1994），巴西（1999，2002），阿根廷（2002），泰国（1997），韩国（1997），马来西亚（1997），印度尼西亚（1997），俄罗斯（1998），土耳其（2001）等国。
10如Flood,Marion(2002)使用了FJ模型（J.A.Frenkel,B.Jovanovic，1981），D.Hauner(2005)采纳了成本收益分析方法，O.Jeanne,R.Ranciere(2006)则在效用最大化模型框架下得出了适度储备规模。
11不少文献事实上既有理论，也有实证，尤其是20世纪80年代后的文献大都理论和实证并重。12如单位根检验，协整检验等。
献的评述；第三部分是对边际成本收益分析法的评述。表1-1
研究机构或作者使用比例法论证适度储备需求的主要研究文献总结论文发
表年份
1958
1960
1964
1965使用的比例方法黄金储备/进口额储备额/进口额储备额/对外净收支储备额/进口额
储备额/进口额
1966储备额/年度储备最大损失额
储备额/广义货币量
储备额/中央银行负债
1968
1970
1996
2004储备额/进口额储备额/进口额储备额/M2储备额/短期外债1951-661951-64世界总体,区域世界总体,区域和国家拉美国家拉美，东亚地区1949-6514个工业国经验检验的期限1913-281928-631953-631960-64样本中的国家数目8个欧洲国家工业国十国集团十国集团P.Guidotti
资料来源：H.G.Grubel,1971,“Thedemandforinternationalreserves:ACriticalReviewoftheLiterature”,JournalofEconomicLiterriture,VOL.9,No.4.P1152,经过重新整理。
（一）对应用比例法研究适度储备规模文献的评述
如表1-1所示，由于各国人口、面积、经济发展程度的各异，因此单纯讨论或比较各国储备绝对规模不具说服力，不少学者使用各种比例法或按某一标尺（如进口、对外负债等）来衡量储备充足与否，其中最为常见的即是储备/进口比例法。不少学者简单地把一国政府必须保持一定的外汇现金余额作为理由，却没有或不能提供分析严密和令人信服的解释。其论证逻辑如下：无论是政府还是私人部门都需要保留现金来熨平收支。对私人部门来说，其收支总额可用国民收入来测度，而对政府来说最恰当的方法就是进口额了。但把政府储备需求与私人现金需求进行类比是不完全正确的，因为私人是主动进行交易，而政府是在私人交易结果上被动参与的。在既有文献中对两种需求动因差异的重要性并未给予充分的研究（H.G.Grubel,1971）。
除了进口，还有另外两类经济变量被应用在比例法中。第一类包含诸如国内货币供给和对外流动性负债等，这些变量反映了一国外汇储备余额被提取的潜在风险或对产品和服务总需求的增加。H.G.Johnson(1958)、T.Scitovsky(1958)
和Machlup(1966)分别对使用这些变量提供了理论上的说明和实证检验。第二类经济变量包含诸如对外净收支或年度储备损失余额，这些变量反映了一国过去国际收支的稳定性。IMF(1958,1970)、W.M.Brown(1964)、Machlup（1966）提供了理论上的解释。这些规模变量在比例法中的使用在后来也得到了不少学者的重新发掘和认可。在对20世纪80、90年代发展中国家的货币和金融危机进行分析研究后，Calvo(1996)认为一国遭受危机的可能性应该与外汇储备/M2有关联，原因是M2反映了一国资产被提取的潜在敞口。对危机预测的经验模型模拟结果也表明外汇储备/短期外债比例是一国发生金融危机概率的重要决定变量（Radelet,StevenandSachs,1998），这一比例后来还形成了著名的“Greenspan-Guidottirule”，即前美联储主席Greenspan和前阿根廷财政部副部长P.Guidotti所提出的最佳比例为100%的准则。
如前所述，对于使用这些比例法的文献来说，其中最困难也最重要的问题是如何解释这一比例在过去的变化和预测将来。这个问题的回答与对“充足”和“适度”储备的正确理解紧密相关。尽管不少文献意识到了这点，但似乎仍然把这些比例作为最好的经验工具来分析过去储备的充足性并预测将来需求。IMF（1958）研究认为，从理论上说影响一国对外汇储备需求的因素有许多，从而难以选择单个算术比例作为判断外汇储备是否满足需求的标准。但在IMF所发表报告的经验研究部分却使用了国际储备额/进口额比例，当然这一比例是在一些先决条件下用来解释和推测的。R.Triffin(1960)归纳了主要工业国合意的外汇储备额/进口额比例，他总结认为主要工业国大都持有不低于年度进口额40%比例的国际储备，如果低于这个比例，这些国家就要承担剧烈调整（如持续的紧缩）的压力，20%的比例被认为是绝对下限。1970年IMF再次重申仅依靠储备/进口比例法来测度储备需求是不完善的，但由于没有更好的方法，IMF在其报告中继续使用了这个比例。Machlup(1966)对使用比例法来分析储备需求表示怀疑，他指出从理论上难以证明他所选取的任一比例应该不随国家和时间而改变，而统计分析结果确实表明了这些比例因时因地而异。据此他认为储备需求不是任何可观察变量的函数，而仅仅取决于政府对储备增长的愿望。由于没有确定储备以多少比例增长才满足政府愿望，因此这个结论不具有经济政策含义。
W.M.Brown(1964)认为一国政府持有储备目的是预防将来国际收支赤字的不确定性，因此他以过去收支余额为基础来测算国际储备额/对外收支净余额的比例并认为当这一比例固定时对国际储备的需求就可以得到满足。这种比例法虽然正确地强调了未来收支的不确定性，但有两个缺陷。其一是对外净收支余额往往较小甚至为负导致这个比例毫无意义。其二是这个方法忽略了对外净收支余额往往自动适应现有储备额（无论对个别国家还是平均来说）的事实，原因是在任意
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